Betting markets flip in Virginia AG race after Jay Jones scandal
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
People are betting on who will win the attorney general race in Virginia.
Why it matters: The odds have flipped in favor of Republican Jason Miyares this past week in his biggest lead yet.
By the numbers: People have bet at least $176,000 on the race across major online prediction markets — Kalshi, PredictIt and Polymarket — since last December.
The latest: Bettors have recently soured on Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones after the following:
- A resurfaced text scandal.
- News reports that Jones received a reckless driving charge for driving at 116 mph in 2022 and completed community service at his own PAC.
- A report from Virginia Scope's Brandon Jarvis, in which Del. Carrie Coyner (R) alleged that Jones, in a private 2020 phone call, suggested that a few police officers dying might stop them from killing — a claim Jones has denied.
Reality check: These markets are betting lines intended to provide a price to wager on at a point in time, not necessarily to forecast whether the outcome is probable.
- In 2016, the odds of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton winning on PredictIt were 82% the day before Election Day.
- And the recent wagers make up just a fraction of the $1.1 million people have bet on who will win the Virginia governor's race on Kalshi alone.
The intrigue: On Kalshi, bettors are including Jones in other metrics.