What Trump's mass deportation plans mean for Virginia
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People in Manassas protesting a crackdown on undocumented immigrants back in 2007. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
There are an estimated 275,000 undocumented immigrants in Virginia whose futures are now more uncertain with President-elect Trump's promises for mass deportations.
Why it matters: Trump has said he wants to quickly remove all 11 million undocumented immigrants from the U.S., and use the military to do it — a plan immigration experts say could cost $150 billion to $350 billion to execute.
By the numbers: Virginia's undocumented population has barely budged in size in the last 20 years, according to the Pew Research Center in July.
- But it's larger than all of Richmond.
- Pew used the most recently available data from 2022 and drew from augmented U.S. Census Bureau data for the estimates.
Between the lines: The Migration Policy Institute in 2019, the latest update available, estimated that nearly 1 in 5 undocumented Virginians — around 50,000 people — were married to a U.S. citizen or a lawful permanent resident.
- That means these mass deportations would affect those families, known as being "mixed-status," too.
Reality check: Trump's plans will likely run into several procedural roadblocks.
High-profile raids are expected to capture some number of undocumented workers and could have a chilling effect that prompts others not to show up at their jobs.
- The labor participation rate for noncitizens in Virginia is 72% — slightly higher than the state's rate of 66% as of October, per the Virginia Employment Commission.
- And while local data is difficult to come by, and undocumented laborers make up a relatively small percentage of the total U.S. workforce, they have outsized roles in fields like construction, agriculture and hospitality.
Yes, but: Turf wars, local resistance and logical staffing realities would make it impossible to round up 11 million people, experts said.
- Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares has said local law enforcement has the "authority and moral duty" to cooperate with federal immigration agencies.
- Richmond Mayor-elect Danny Avula said he wouldn't participate in deportation efforts but didn't specify how, per the Times-Dispatch.
- RPS Superintendent Jason Kamras told RTD that the school system is thinking about what protections for students could look like to "make sure that they understand that school is a sanctuary for them."
Plus, the Trump administration would also need to build new temporary detention centers to hold people who are being deported.
- Virginia has two major ICE facilities: One in Caroline County and another in Farmville.
- Detainees have a right to due process before removal, but there's already a four-year national backlog of 3.7 million people waiting for hearings right now.
- It could balloon to 16 years with the mass deportation plan.
Go deeper: Trump's mass deportation plan could clog immigration courts for year