Most Richmond millennials make less than Gen X and have less upward mobility
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Millennials born and raised in Richmond are faring worse than Gen Xers when it comes to income and income mobility, a new analysis found.
Why it matters: Intergenerational mobility — the idea that you'll do better than your parents, your children will do better than you, and so on — is core to the American dream, but is far from a guarantee.
The big picture: The paper published last month uses federal census data and tax returns to track people born in 1978 and 1992 and examines their income in adulthood at 27 years old.
- It found Richmonders born in 1992 earned less at age 27 than 27-year-olds born in 1978 across most family income categories.
By the numbers: The average annual income, adjusted for inflation, of Richmonders from low-income households dropped the most, with those born in 1992 making $26,386 at age 27, compared to $28,685 for those born in 1978, an 8% drop.
- Local millennials born to middle-income households earned 7% less than Gen Xers at age 27, while those born to high-income households (in the 75th percentile of incomes) made 3.3% less than people born in 1978.
- Only millennials born in 1992 from Richmond's highest income households fared better than a 1978-born Gen Xer at age 27, earning around $51,000, or 3.1% more than the previous generation.
Zoom out: It's not just Richmond. In many of the 50 biggest U.S. metro areas, Americans born in 1992 were doing worse at age 27 than those born in 1978 at that age, especially to low-income families.
- Brownsville, Texas, had the biggest increase across low-income generations: Those born in 1992 made $33,500 at age 27, compared to $31,400 for those born in 1978 (up 6.7%; adjusted to 2023 dollars).
- Philadelphia had the biggest drop, with those born in 1992 making just $27,200 at age 27, compared to $31,200 for those born in 1978 (down 12.8%).
The intrigue: The upward mobility rates of white kids born into low-income families in many parts of the country had fallen, while class mobility among Black kids improved significantly between generations, researchers found.
- Low-income white 27-year-olds in Richmond saw the greatest decrease in household incomes between the two generations, dropping 13%, or around $2,000 less a year in income.
- Kids born to low-income Asian and Hispanic households also saw decreases at 5.9% and 3.9% respectively.
- Meanwhile, Black 27-year-olds born to low-income Richmond households saw a 3.2% increase in earnings.
Yes, but: "Black children born in 1992 still had poorer prospects of rising up than white children in virtually every county in America, because initial Black-white disparities were so large," the study's authors wrote.
The bottom line: It wasn't the avocado toast. A native Richmonder who's about 30 years old today is more likely to be in a worse financial position than a Richmonder who was about 30 in 2014.
Go deeper: You can explore the researchers' work at the Opportunity Atlas, an interactive tool where the data can be sliced by income levels, gender, race and more.