The cities with the best — and worst — upward mobility
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Americans born to low-income families are faring worse than the last generation in most major U.S. cities, a new analysis finds.
Why it matters: Intergenerational mobility — the idea that you'll do better than your parents, your children will do better than you, and so on — is core to the American dream, but is far from a guarantee.
What they did: A new analysis from the Census Bureau and Opportunity Insights, a research group at Harvard University, seeks to measure intergenerational mobility at the county level.
- Researchers compared the average household income at age 27 for Americans born to low-income families in both 1978 and 1992 to get a localized picture of changing opportunities over time.
What they found: In 38 of the 50 biggest U.S. metro areas, Americans born to low-income families in 1992 were doing worse at age 27 than those born in 1978 at that age.
- Brownsville, Texas, had the biggest increase across generations: Those born in 1992 made $33,500 at age 27, compared to $31,400 for those born in 1978 (up 6.7%; adjusted to 2023 dollars).
- Philadelphia had the biggest drop, with those born in 1992 making just $27,200 at age 27, compared to $31,200 for those born in 1978 (down 12.8%).
Between the lines: The geography of mobility has shifted dramatically, especially when breaking down the data by race.
- "By 1992, upward mobility for low-income white children in the coasts and in the Southwest fell markedly to rates on par with those observed in Appalachia and other areas that historically offered the lowest chances of upward mobility," the researchers write.
- "Conversely, for Black children, upward mobility increased the most in the Southeast and the Midwest — areas where outcomes had historically been poorest for Black Americans."
Yes, but: "Black children born in 1992 still had poorer prospects of rising up than white children in virtually every county in America, because initial Black-white disparities were so large."
The bottom line: Changes affecting one generation quickly affect the next, the researchers say, and "thereby generate rapid changes in economic mobility."
- "While this carries hope for how opportunity can improve, it also comes with some caution, as communities can experience declining opportunity in a similar timeframe."
Go deeper: You can explore the researchers' work at the Opportunity Atlas, an interactive tool where the data can be sliced by income levels, gender, race and more.
