NOAA forecasts "extraordinary" hurricane season
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NOAA's 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. Image: Courtesy of NOAA
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season features an unprecedented combination of air and ocean conditions, and is likely to be extremely active, according to the U.S. government's official seasonal outlook.
The big picture: This is the most aggressive prediction NOAA has ever issued in its May forecast for the hurricane season, which started Saturday and runs through Nov. 30.
- And while Richmond may not be a coastal town, it's certainly seen its fair share of devastation due to the remnants of hurricanes.
Zoom in: The agency is forecasting an above normal season, with 17-25 named storms of tropical storm intensity or greater, eight to 13 of which will become hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.
- That's up from an average of 14 storms strong enough to become named, per the Times-Dispatch.
Why it matters: Hurricanes are nature's largest and most expensive storms, and the odds of a U.S. landfall during an above-average season may be generally higher this year.
- "This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways," said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad in a press conference late last month.
- Historically, the most active period for strong storms is August and September.
Threat level: National Weather Service director Ken Graham, along with outside scientists contacted by Axios, made clear that every ingredient known to influence seasonal hurricane activity is pointing to a near-record one.
- The North Atlantic Ocean Basin is record warm overall, with deep, bathtub-like waters abundant especially in the Caribbean and the Main Development Region, where many of the fiercest hurricanes roam.
- The Caribbean's current average ocean temperature is higher than the 1991–2020 typical peak for an entire season, whereas the Main Development Region's ocean heat content is at Aug. 10 levels.
Yes, but: Officials are emphasizing preparedness over panic.
- "It's reason to be concerned, of course, but not alarmed," Graham said.
- "I'm asking Virginians to have a plan, sign up for emergency alerts and know your evacuation route," Gov. Youngkin said in a statement last week.
- See Virginia's evacuation zones and routes and recommended supplies for emergency kits.