The Triangle's biggest legislative races to watch in 2026
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In-person early voting begins Oct. 15. Photo: Allison Joyce/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Early voting is underway in North Carolina and several competitive state legislative races around the Triangle could reshape Republicans' hold on power.
Why it matters: Republicans are defending a near-supermajority, but Democrats are hoping to capitalize on President Trump's growing unpopularity and gain leverage over education, abortion and more.
By the numbers: Republicans could cement the supermajority by picking up one seat in the House. It takes 72 House votes to beat a veto and Republicans currently hold 71 seats.
- In the Senate, it's 30 — the exact number Republicans have.
What they're saying: "House Democrats are in a strong position heading into the early voting period," Rep. Robert Reives, the N.C. House minority leader, said in a statement. "North Carolinians understand that for things to get better, we need different leadership."
The other side: "It's important that North Carolina has a Republican majority in the General Assembly — our work isn't done," Speaker Destin Hall's spokesperson, Demi Dowdy, said in a statement, touting fiscal policies from the past 15 years and saying they have produced a good quality of life.
State of play: Most pundits do not believe Democrats will flip enough districts to take control of either chamber in 2026. It would take 12 in the House and five in the Senate to regain power for the first time since 2010.
- Democrats do appear to have some momentum. In January, for the first time in the state's history, Republican voters outnumbered Democrat voters. However, Democrats narrowly regained the edge during early registration, according to Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer.
- Those Democratic gains, Bitzer said, are coming from voters under age 45. Unaffiliated voters remain the largest voting bloc.
What we're watching: Several competitive legislative races in the Triangle and just outside are worth monitoring closely on Election Night.
Southern Wake: Republican Rep. Erin Paré has represented the Fuquay-Varina and Holly Springs area for six years. She faces Democrat Winn Decker.
- Paré is increasingly investing in TV ads. Both candidates are messaging around the district's growing pains, including high property taxes and education dollars stretching thin, per Carolina Public Press.
Northern Wake: First-time Rep. Mike Schietzelt, a Republican, has a heavy fundraising advantage but is considered vulnerable. His Democratic challenger is Evonne Hopkins, whom he beat two years ago by 3.2 points.
- It's a fast-growing region of the state, and the town of Wake Forest replaced its longtime Republican mayor with a Democratic Party-endorsed candidate last year.
Northern Triangle: Democrat Haseeb Fatmi has been an incumbent only since May, and he hasn't been able to raise as much money as his Republican opponent, Chris Stock, per Ballotpedia.
- A Libertarian challenger is also running. In a district that went for President Trump in 2024, that could complicate things.
Nash County: It's just east of Wake County, in former Gov. Roy Cooper's backyard, and has a reputation for being one of the state's most purple regions.
- Incumbent Republicans Sen. Lisa Barnes and Rep. Allen Chesser both face Democrat local pastors making fairly moderate pitches to voters.
- Both of those Democratic challengers are favored to win, per State Navigate forecasts. The Assembly calls it Democrats' "best pickup opportunity" in the Senate.
Zoom out: While the maps were drawn to favor a Republican majority, the conservative-leaning John Locke Foundation counts seven toss-up seats in the N.C. House.
- Of those, five are held by Republicans.
- In the N.C. Senate, three races are considered toss-ups, including one held by state Sen. Michael Lee, who is considered one of the strongest candidates to replace outgoing Sen. Phil Berger as Senate leader.
What's next: It's in voters' hands now.