5 big questions going into a critical NCGA session

Between the lines: At the same time, Republican Senate leader Phil Berger will return to the chamber for the first time since losing his primary to Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page.

• A leadership transition of this magnitude doesn't happen often in North Carolina. For example, in this reporter's lifetime, there have been only two Senate presidents pro tempore — Democrat Marc Basnight (1993-2010) and Berger (2011-2026).
• And politicos across the state are watching closely to see how Berger runs the Senate following his loss.

Here are the questions we are monitoring:

🗳️ Will an heir to Berger make their move?

Berger, arguably the state's most influential Republican, plans to serve out the rest of his term, which runs through the end of the year.

• But already, several Republican senators have declared their intentions to replace Berger, including Michael Lee of New Hanover County, Todd Johnson of Union County, and Ralph Hise of Mitchell County.

What we're watching: Will those three leading candidates take more of a leadership role this session, or will a different name emerge?

💰 Will there be a compromise on tax cuts?

The biggest sticking point between the two Republican-led chambers is a disagreement over how fast the state should cut its income taxes.

Why it matters: If a compromise can be found there, it may be the domino that puts the rest of the budget into place.

Zoom in: The 2023 budget mandated automatic tax cuts when the state hits certain revenue thresholds. Under that agreement, the individual tax rate is expected to drop from 3.99% to 3.49% in 2027 and to go lower in the years after.

• Yes, but: The House, under Speaker Destin Hall, wants to slow those tax cuts over concerns about state revenue slowing and wants to raise salaries for teachers and state employees.

Between the lines: Lowering the state's tax rates is perhaps the biggest legacy of the Berger era, potentially making a compromise on the topic harder under his watch.

🩺 Will the state fund Medicaid?

North Carolina's Medicaid program is forecast to run out of money in the coming months because it is still operating under funding levels from a previous budget.

Why it matters: If it does run dry, there will be cuts to care for the 3.1 million people in the state who get coverage through Medicaid, stressing hospitals and clinics statewide.

State of play: Gov. Josh Stein, whose administration runs the Medicaid program, is calling for lawmakers to urgently allocate $319 million.

• The Stein administration already moved to make some cuts to services because of a lack of budget, but it was stopped by the courts.
• Republicans have indicated previously that they believe the budget gap is smaller and that anti-fraud provisions may be tied to new spending.

🏥 Will North Carolina Children's Hospital get funding?

Duke Health and UNC Health are expected to begin construction on the state's first standalone children's hospital in Apex next year.

State of play: But the ultimate scale of that hospital could be determined in the General Assembly, with the hospital's funding held up in the discussions over Medicaid.

• The Senate, under Berger, has promised hundreds of millions of dollars to the future children's hospital.
• But the House has remained more skeptical of the need for state funds and could use the hospital as a bargaining chip.

🚧 Will there be revisions to the state's downzoning ban?

In 2024, state Republicans tucked into a Hurricane Helene relief bill a provision that banned local municipalities from downzoning properties without the consent of all property owners affected.

• Downzoning reduces the amount of density, or the types of land uses allowed, on a property.

Why it matters: That provision has proven to be a headache for many cities and counties trying to make long-term planning decisions. Durham's now-delayed Unified Development Ordinance rewrite sparked the whole issue.

• The provision has also made it more difficult for some cities and counties to regulate how data centers are built in their communities.

Between the lines: There has been momentum behind the scenes on a potential compromise, but it remains to be seen if it will pass — or if any municipalities, like Durham, will be excluded from it.