The North Carolina counties bucking the trend with growing under-five populations
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Families gather in Raleigh's Dix Park before a July 4th fireworks show. Photo: Courtesy of the Dix Park Conservancy
Four North Carolina counties are among the few urban counties nationwide to grow their under-five populations over the last five years, according to a new analysis.
Why it matters: During the pandemic, many families with young children moved away from some of the country's largest cities, according to the report from Economic Innovation Group.
- That trend, however, has not been universally experienced. Every large urban county that has experienced growth of its under-five population since 2020 is in Texas, North Carolina or Florida.
By the numbers: In North Carolina, that growth has been seen in four urban counties:
- Mecklenburg's under-five population has grown by 5.5% since 2020 to 77,000.
- Wake's has grown 3.1% to 69,000.
- Forsyth is up 2.8% to 23,000.
- And Durham is up 0.3% to 20,000.
Between the lines: Nathan Dollar, director of Carolina Demography at UNC-Chapel Hill, told Axios that the growth stems from North Carolina remaining one of the fastest-growing states in the country.
- The number of births in the state still remains below replacement rate, he said, meaning that without people moving into the state North Carolina's population would begin shrinking.
What they're saying: "Most people who move, move for purposes of work. Not everybody, but most people," he told Axios.
- "And most of those people are in their prime working ages," he added. "It's not that they are having more children. It's that they are people who are more likely to have kids."
Yes, but: Live births are growing in some of the fastest-growing areas, too.
- The number of live births in Wake County was 13,190 in 2022, up 7.5% compared to a decade prior, according to state data.
- In Mecklenburg, there were 15,038 in 2022, up 8.6%.
The big picture: The growth in that younger population can have a profound effect on communities, and how they plan to build out more schools or add other services serving children, Dollar said.
- Yet despite the growth in under-five children, most urban public school districts have seen their student populations decline, as they face more competition from charter schools and private schools.