Satellite image of Category 4 Hurricane Helene making landfall in Florida. Photo: Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2024
The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have "above-normal" activity, with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, a prominent forecast group said last week.
Why it matters: This season isn't expected to be as active as last year's, but it still ranks among the highest hurricane forecasts that researchers from Colorado State University (CSU) have issued in April.
Before last year's prediction of 11 hurricanes, the previous high in an April outlook called for nine hurricanes, first made in 1995.
Driving the news: Unusually warm waters in the Atlantic, along with the likely absence of El Niño — typically a hurricane suppressant — are driving expectations for the season.
Researchers forecast a busier season than the 1991–2020 average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes — those with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
The forecast is intended to provide a "best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season, not an exact measure," according to a CSU news release.
Between the lines: Last year, the CSU forecast of 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes proved accurate.
The big picture: WithNorth Carolina still recovering from Helene, this year's hurricane forecast isn't exactly promising.
What they're saying: "As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season," the release reads.
"Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity."
What's next: The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.
