The battle over NC's new political maps will center on race
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
North Carolina could become a more Republican-leaning state under newly drawn political districts the legislature passed Wednesday.
Why it matters: The battle over those maps is only just beginning.
- Democrats and anti-gerrymandering groups are sure to file lawsuits in the near future, in hopes that the courts will strike the Republican-drawn districts down.
The intrigue: With partisan gerrymandering no longer barred, Democrats are likely to concentrate their efforts on suing Republicans for racially gerrymandering or diluting minority votes.
- Democrats and other groups have already begun highlighting concerns with how the maps may impact minority voters, outlining what may become the basis of their arguments in court in the coming months.
- And they'll take cues from how gerrymandering cases in other states have played out, most recently in Alabama and currently in South Carolina.
What they're saying: "We're not asking for representation for people just for fun," Democratic Rep. Robert Reives said in a debate on the House floor Wednesday.
- "People need to have a voice, sometimes to just let you know what you don't know."
Yes, but: Republicans have said they did not use racial data in drawing the new districts — a process that played out behind closed the doors.
- Lawmakers did, however, perform an analysis using racial data after the maps were drawn. They did not make any significant changes to the maps based on that analysis.
- Republicans have also said this week that studies have found no "sufficient" racially polarized voting in North Carolina.
Catch up quick: Earlier this year, the state Supreme Court, with its newly elected Republican majority, found that the legislature is not barred from partisan gerrymandering and granted it the authority to redraw political maps this year.
- As a result, Republican lawmakers, staffers and an outside consultant spent weeks this fall redrawing state House, Senate and congressional maps, and have openly acknowledged in recent days that each was drawn to give Republicans an advantage where possible.
What we're watching: Democrats and civil rights groups are expected to challenge the drawing of North Carolina's 1st Congressional district in the northeast, which is currently represented by U.S. Rep. Don Davis, a Black Democrat.
- "Just as plaintiffs in Alabama convinced a federal court a GOP map there violated the Voting Rights Act by failing to draw an additional Black majority seat, plaintiffs could demonstrate it's possible to draw a Black majority seat in northeastern North Carolina," Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman wrote in an analysis of the new congressional districts.
- Of note: In the 2022 map, Black voters represented some 41% of that 1st district. They would represent just over 40% under the new map.
State Sen. Val Applewhite, a Democrat from Fayetteville, also argued that Republicans shifted historically Black precincts out of her district, minimizing Black voters' influence in the area.
- Democrats have also highlighted how districts in Wilmington along with New Hanover, Cumberland, Forsyth, Wake and Mecklenburg counties hurt Black voters.
