Immigration slowdown hits Maricopa County growth

Why it matters: Maricopa has been one of the nation's fastest growing counties for the better part of the last decade. And the strength of our economy is in many ways tied to that growth, ASU research economist Sean Ewen told us.

The big picture: President Trump's immigration enforcement crackdown has had a direct impact on population nationwide.

• Every U.S. metro area saw immigration decrease between 2024 and 2025, and 75% of all counties saw overall population growth slow or turn negative, the New York Times reported from the new census figures.

Zoom in: Maricopa County's net international migration (immigration minus emigration) fell from almost 46,000 in 2024 to just over 22,000 in 2025.

• The county's overall population increased by 35,411, a 40% slowdown from its peak in 2021-2022

Between the lines: While the Valley has diversified its economy since the 2008 housing crash, construction and real estate remain important industries here. And their success is predicated on a growing population, Ewen said.

• He also noted that Arizona has fewer working-age people per capita than the nation at large, and has historically benefitted from immigrant workers who add to the labor pool.

The intrigue: Trump has argued that cracking down on immigration would decrease housing demand and make homes more affordable, which would be welcome in our stubbornly hot market.

• Yes, but: That hasn't happened, and there's no evidence that it will, Mark Stapp, executive director of the Master of Real Estate Development program at ASU, told us.

In fact, it's likely that immigration decline will have the opposite effect on home prices, because the construction industry relies heavily on immigrant labor.

• Without it, the cost of building goes up, and that will be passed on to future homebuyers, Stapp said.