Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana case could affect Latino districts in Arizona
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Activists outside the U.S. Supreme Court during arguments in a case that could limit the use of the Voting Rights Act to draw majority-minority districts. Photo: Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Legal Defense Fund
A U.S. Supreme Court case out of Louisiana could reshape how Arizona draws its congressional and legislative maps by limiting how much race can be considered when creating districts meant to boost minority representation.
Why it matters: Arizona has two congressional districts and seven legislative districts that are majority Latino, along with another legislative district that's majority Native American.
- From 2010 to 2020, Arizona's Latino population grew from 30% to 33%, according to the census.
The big picture: Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act prohibits racial discrimination in voting and election practices and has long been interpreted to require the creation of districts where minority voters can elect candidates of their choice.
Driving the news: The Supreme Court heard arguments Wednesday in a case challenging the Louisiana Legislature's creation of a second majority-Black congressional district last year, following a federal court order.
- Justice Brett Kavanaugh noted that while race-based remedies in redistricting are permissible, "they should not be indefinite."
Caveat: Arizona's maps aren't drawn by lawmakers but by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC), intended to curb partisan gerrymandering.
- The panel consists of two Democrats, two Republicans and an independent chair.
- Unlike legislatures in other states, the AIRC couldn't come back to redraw maps mid-decade in response to a Supreme Court ruling and must wait until after the 2030 census.
Zoom in: Even if the high court restricts the use of race in mapmaking, other requirements in the Arizona Constitution would go a long way toward ensuring Latino representation.
- The state constitution's six redistricting criteria include respecting "communities of interest," a broad term generally used to define any collection of people with common needs, concerns or interests.
- Other requirements include compliance with the Voting Rights Act, equal populations, compactness, respect for political and geographic boundaries, and competitiveness when there would be "no significant detriment" to the other five criteria.
Between the lines: Doug Johnson, a consultant hired by the AIRC in 2021, said Latino districts like Phoenix's south and west side 3rd Congressional District and area legislative districts would be "almost guaranteed to be drawn" based on criteria other than the Voting Rights Act.
- He said the state may be less likely to include a southern-based Latino district extending into the West Valley, like the current 7th Congressional District.
- Erika Neuberg, the 2021 commission's independent chair, told Axios she has "no doubt that people will abuse the system" in other states if the Supreme Court limits Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, but for her commission, "it wouldn't have made a difference," and she predicted it wouldn't for future commissions either.
Yes, but: Neuberg said future commissions could still reduce Latino representation if the Supreme Court limits Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
- The courts have given commissions leeway to balance the often-conflicting redistricting criteria, she said.
The intrigue: Neuberg added that creating Latino-majority districts made it harder for the AIRC to create more competitive districts, long a priority for Democrats in predominantly Republican Arizona.
- More majority-Latino districts mean fewer Democratic voters who could make other districts competitive.