Arizona won't follow Texas or California's lead in redistricting battle
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Arizona will be on the sidelines while Texas, California and perhaps other states try to one-up each other with competing redistricting power plays.
Why it matters: Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the U.S. House, and how red and blue states redraw their district maps could decide which party wins control of Congress' lower chamber in next year's elections.
The big picture: A combination of independent redistricting and divided government prevents Arizona from undertaking the type of redistricting shenanigans we're seeing in California and Texas.
Catch up quick: At President Trump's behest, Texas Republicans are redrawing their U.S. House map for 2026 with the intent of creating up to five new GOP-controlled districts.
- In response, California Gov. Gavin Newsom pledged to redraw his state's maps to give Democrats more seats.
- California uses an independent commission for redistricting, but the Democratic-controlled Legislature can ask voters to approve new maps, which Newsom on Thursday said will happen in a Nov. 4 special election.
Reality check: Arizona's Republican-controlled Legislature can't simply redraw our House map like its Texas counterpart because, like California, we use an independent commission to draw congressional and legislative districts after each decennial census.
- And legislative Republicans can't send a new map to voters, like California Democrats plan to, because they'd need Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs' support for a special election in time for new districts to be approved for the 2026 election.
- The Legislature can refer measures to the ballot without the governor, but they won't go before voters until November 2026, when it's too late to affect the upcoming congressional elections.
Catch up quick: For most of Arizona's history, the Legislature drew congressional and legislative districts.
- But voters in 2000 approved the creation of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC), which took over mapmaking power.
How it works: The commission consists of two Democrats, two Republicans and a chair who's traditionally a registered independent.
- After each decade's census, Democratic and Republican leaders of each legislative chamber choose the first four members, who pick a fifth member to serve as chair.
- The five commissioners draw the congressional and legislative maps, which don't require legislative or gubernatorial approval.
Between the lines: Barring a court order, there's no way for the commission to come back mid-decade to redraw the maps.
- And there are no current legal challenges to Arizona's maps.
What she's saying: Erika Neuberg, the current chair of the AIRC, told Axios the drama unfolding in other states shows that Arizona does redistricting right.
- "It wouldn't be worth it to any side to open this up because … they're balanced enough," Neuberg said of the current districts. "I think the maps are standing up well."