Arizona economy could take a hit from Canadian tourism drop
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Canadian snowbirds are likely starting to make their way home from Arizona as temperatures rise, and some may not be coming back.
The big picture: President Trump's tariffs and insistence that Canada should become the 51st American state is fueling a remarkable rally-round-the-flag effect. Canadian patriotism is skyrocketing alongside disdain for all things American throughout the Great White North.
- New data suggests Canadians' desire to visit the U.S. is absolutely tanking.
- And some Canadians are ditching their winter homes in the U.S. as tensions between the two countries simmer.
- Josh Coddington, a spokesperson for the Arizona Office of Tourism, told Axios the state hasn't seen any data yet on the economic effects in Arizona.
Why it matters: Anything that discourages Canadian tourism to Arizona will negatively affect the state's economy.
- Canada is the second-largest source of international visitors to Arizona, behind Mexico.
By the numbers: In 2023, about 822,500 Canadians visited Arizona and spent about $775 million here, Coddington said.
- And, he noted, that figure doesn't take in the full economic impact of snowbirds who stay longer than 30 days.
- When visitors stay for that long, they behave more like seasonal residents.
Driving the news: Advance bookings for Canada-U.S. flights for April-September are down over 70% compared with this time last year, per aviation data firm OAG.
- "This sharp drop suggests that travelers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute," writes OAG chief analyst John Grant.
- Airlines are also reducing transborder capacity — a strong signal that they, too, are seeing (or at least predicting) less demand.
Yes, but: At least one airline is calling OAG's data into question.
- The numbers are "not reflective of Air Canada's booking patterns, nor the state of the market, based on all information sources available to us," an Air Canada spokesperson told travel news site The Points Guy (TPG).
- Reality check: The spokesperson confirmed there's been a "softening" in demand and the airline has trimmed capacity accordingly.
Threat level: A mere 10% drop in Canadian visitors could cost U.S. businesses as much as $2.1 billion in revenue, TPG notes.
- Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines are all down around 30% to 40% so far this year.
- Several major airlines, including Delta and American, previously warned of soft first quarters amid weakening consumer demand.
Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs and taunts may be the last straw for snowbirds who are already finding it more expensive to live south of the border, real estate agents say.
- America's northern neighbors make up 11% of foreign homebuyers on average over the past decade, according to National Association of Realtors data shared with Axios.
- Florida attracts the most Canadian buyers, followed by Arizona and California.
Between the lines: Snowbirds are also rattled by the Trump administration's move to require Canadians staying in the U.S. for longer than 30 days to register with immigration authorities, says Alexandra DuPont, a broker with dual citizenship who helps snowbirds buy and sell condos in Florida.
- Mike Huckins, a spokesperson for the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce, told KTAR last month that although the rule only applies to Canadians who plan to stay for more than 30 days, "you're already seeing some of those short-term visitors pull back on their travel plans."
What they're saying: "We are done for a while," Martin Buck, a Canadian who sold his family's Arizona vacation home just before Trump was sworn in, told the Vancouver Sun.