Study shows 10-year drop in Arizona high school graduation rates

A record share of American high schoolers graduated on time in 2022, but Arizona was one of the few states where numbers moved in the wrong direction over the preceding decade, per a new analysis. 

Why it matters: Arizona was an outlier compared with the rest of the country, with its graduation rates dropping while most of the country's improved.

Driving the news: 86.6% of U.S. high schoolers graduated on time in spring 2022, up from 79% in 2011.

• That's according to a report from the GRAD Partnership, a group of nine education organizations.

Yes, but: Only 77.3% of Arizona high schoolers graduated on time in 2022, down 0.6 percentage points from 2011.

• Arizona's 2011 rate of 77.9% ranked 27th among the 50 states, while the 2022 rate put it second-to-last. 
• Nationally, rates increased by an average of 7.6 percentage points. 

How it works: The report, based on U.S. Department of Education data, examines the adjusted cohort graduation rate.

• Essentially, that's the percentage of high school freshmen who graduated within four years; the rate has been collected since the 2010-11 school year.

The other side: Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne told Axios that Arizona's 0.6 percentage points was "statistically insignificant," saying proficiency is a better metric for gauging student success. 

• Horne pointed to Arizona's 2022 scores in the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP).
• In the reading and mathematics proficiency of 4th and 8th graders, Arizona was either at or barely below the national average and deemed "not significantly different" from the nation as a whole. 
• Though the NAEP scores didn't include high school students, Horne said, they're a better basis for comparison in terms of academic success because states have varying standards for graduation.

Zoom in: Some states saw remarkable progress: 91.2% of West Virginia high schoolers graduated on time in 2022, up 14.7 percentage points from 2011.

Friction point: The impact of COVID-19 on education is still playing out, but the long-term picture is deemed a big success.

• There's evidence of at least a temporary blip around the pandemic: "In 2020, there were 10 states with graduation rates of 90% or higher, but only five in 2022," per the report.

Between the lines: From 2011 to 2022, the nationwide growth rates for Black students (+14.1 percentage points), Hispanic students (+11.8) and Native American students (+6.7) all outpaced that of white students (+5.9).

• There's also been progress for low-income students (+11.4), English learners (+15.1) and students with disabilities (+12.3).

Caveat: Graduation rates are only one measure of educational success and may not account for differing standards or policies between states.

• Case in point: "Many states, districts and schools waived some high school graduation requirements or eased academic pressures on students during the pandemic," the report points out.

What's next: It's still too early to tell whether remote learning and social distancing hurt the long-term success of students who spent their pandemic years in elementary school, the report warns.