Brace for a warmer, drier winter
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An annual NOAA winter outlook predicting weak La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean likely means a warmer and drier winter than usual for us.
Why it matters: After back-to-back winters with strong precipitation, a dry winter would exacerbate ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest and next year's wildfire season in Arizona.
Zoom in: A warmer- and drier-than-average winter is favored along the southern tier, with the likely emergence of drought conditions in the Southwest specifically.
Yes, but: The Southwest doesn't always experience the typical effects seen elsewhere in the country from La Niña and El Niño conditions, so the forecast doesn't necessarily mean Arizona will see hotter and drier weather than normal this winter, Sean Benedict, the lead meteorologist for National Weather Service Phoenix, told Axios.
- The NWS' Climate Prediction Center forecast 60% of La Niña conditions.
The big picture: The Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest are expected to see above-average precipitation from December through February, and this may be combined with colder-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest.
- La Niña winters tend to be snowier in the Northwest, whereas the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Northeast tend to get below-average snowfall.
- Other factors, like the stratospheric polar vortex and patterns of air pressure in the North Atlantic, are likely to assert themselves this winter, leading to large week-to-week variability, per NOAA experts.
Zoom out: NOAA's climate outlooks are probabilistic, which means they communicate the odds of a particular outcome, rather than predicting definitive conditions.
- Therefore, projections show higher odds of drought expansion into the Southwest; above-average odds for a colder, snowier winter than normal in the Pacific Northwest; and strong odds of a milder-than-average winter from the southern tier of the U.S. to parts of the East Coast.
Between the lines: Human-caused climate change could overcome the typical effects of a weak La Niña as a top factor influencing winter weather.
- "Winter for many regions across the U.S. is the fastest warming season of all the seasons," said NOAA climate expert, Tom Di Liberto on a recent press call.