1 in 5 Arizona voters will identify as LGBTQ+ by 2040
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Almost 20% of Arizona voters are expected to identify as LGBTQ+ by 2040 — more than the national average, according to a report from the Human Rights Campaign.
- Currently, the LGBTQ+ population represents about 13% of voters statewide.
Why it matters: The growth of this voting bloc — driven by higher LGBTQ+ identification among younger generations — could transform the electoral landscape at local, state and federal levels, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.
The big picture: Arizona is one of several consequential swing states where the proportion of LGBTQ+ voters is expected to increase substantially between 2020 and 2040, researchers found.
Zoom in: The percentage of Arizonans identifying as LGBTQ+ has almost doubled with each generation, according to a 2021 U.S. Census survey.
- 5.3% of baby boomers (born between 1946-64)
- 7.9% of Gen Xers (1965-80)
- 17.7% of millennials (1981-96)
- 30.9% of people born in 1997 or after
State of play: Arizona already has a higher percentage of people who identify as LGBTQ+ than most other states, but our politics often don't reflect that.
- The legislature passed laws this year banning gender-affirming surgery for youth and banning transgender girls from playing in girls sports at public schools.
What they're saying: Equality Arizona interim executive director Jeanne Woodbury tells Axios Phoenix she believes these policies aim to discourage LGBTQ+ people from political involvement because opponents realize they could wield significant power.
- Her organization registers LGBTQ+ voters and encourages them to participate in council meetings, campaigns and other political processes.
Yes, but: If the population does increase as predicted, Woodbury says, that "fundamentally changes" what's politically possible in terms of equal protections and opportunities in Arizona.