Oct 14, 2022 - Politics & Policy

Report: LGBTQ+ voter bloc projected to grow to nearly 20% by 2040

The LGBTQ+ voting population is projected to grow from one in 10 voters today to nearly one in four in 2040, according to a report from the Human Rights Campaign.

Why it matters: The growth of the LGBTQ+ voting bloc — driven by higher LGBTQ+ identification among younger generations — could transform the U.S. electoral landscape at local, state and federal levels. LGBTQ+ voters have higher turnout rates than other voters, and a record number of LGBTQ+ candidates are running for office.

What we're watching: In several consequential swing states, the proportion of LGBTQ+ voters will almost double between 2020 and 2040, researchers at Human Rights Campaign Foundation and Bowling Green State University found.

  • Ohio is projected to see the largest percentage increase in voters identifying as LGBTQ+, from 10.2% in 2022 to 17.7% in 2040.
  • In Georgia, the proportion of LGBTQ+ voters is projected to grow from 11.6% in 2022 to 19.2% in 2040.
  • Similar changes are projected for Texas (from 12.3% to 19.9%) and Arizona (from 12.6% to 19.4%).
  • In Colorado and Nevada, LGBTQ+ voters are expected to account for more than 20% of the voting population in 2040.

By the numbers: More than one in five Generation Z adults identified as a sexual or gender minority, as did more than one in 10 millennials, according to 2021 Gallup data.

  • That's compared with less than one in 20 Generation X adults and only 2.6% of baby boomers.  

Go deeper: A record number of LGBTQ candidates are running for Congress

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