Metro Phoenix could see temperatures top 125°F by 2035, report shows
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Maricopa County is one of many counties across the U.S. where the heat index could reach 125°F at least one day a year by 2053.
- That's according to a hyperlocal analysis of current and future extreme heat events published Monday by the nonprofit First Street Foundation.
Driving the news: The report makes clear where households will be vulnerable to what would now be considered almost unheard-of heat indices, which show how the air feels from the combination of air temperature and relative humidity, Axios' Andrew Freedman reports.
Why it matters: In just 30 years, climate change will result in higher temperatures for longer periods of time in metro Phoenix.
- The Valley is already grappling with increased numbers of heat deaths and illnesses during the past several summers.
By the numbers: First Street shows that Maricopa County currently sees an average of 83 days a year with a heat index above 100°F. By 2053, we could likely see an average of 100 days with a heat index that high.
- Right now, we see an average of 29 consecutive days over 100°F, compared to 45 days expected in 2053.
- Today, the likelihood of a three-plus day heat wave is 55%. In 2053, it will likely be 85% — 30 years ago it was 12%.
Around Arizona: Nearly every county in the state could see temperatures increase at a similar rate in the coming decades.
- Yuma County is expected to have the longest, hottest summer in 2053, with a projected 71 consecutive days above 100 degrees.
Zoom out: The report, which is based on First Street's peer reviewed heat model, shows that as of now, just 8 million Americans are exposed to "extreme heat" — a maximum heat index of greater than 125°F.
- However, due to the anticipated warming over the next three decades, that number is expected to balloon to 107 million people.
Go deeper: How cities are tackling extreme heat