Aug 1, 2022 - Politics

Map: Pennsylvania's battleground House races

Data: Cook Political Report; Map: Jacque Schrag/Axios
Data: Cook Political Report; Map: Jacque Schrag/Axios

Two congressional district races on opposite sides of Pennsylvania could help determine whether Republicans will take control of the U.S. House this fall, according to one election prognosticator.

The big picture: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter recently updated its U.S. House midterm outlook from a GOP gain of 20-35 seats to 15-30 seats, Axios' Mike Allen writes.

  • Republicans need just four net pickups to gain the majority.

State of play: Cook rates Pennsylvania’s 8th and 17th Congressional Districts as two "tossups" in the upcoming election.

The former, a rematch between incumbent Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright and Republican Jim Bognet, will determine whether Cartwright serves a sixth term in the 8th’s northeastern area encompassing Scranton.

  • Cartwright beat Bognet in 2020 by around 12,000 votes, his smallest margin of victory, per Politico. And the district covers part of Luzerne County, a predominantly white, working class area of eastern Pennsylvania that Politico says will be a bellwether for the Rust Belt.

The race to replace Rep. Conor Lamb in the newly drawn 17th district, which covers Beaver County and some of the Allegheny County suburbs, pits Republican Jeremy Shaffer against Democrat Chris Deluzio.

  • Shaffer, a former Ross Township commissioner, is being out-fundraised by Deluzio, an Iraq War veteran and voting rights attorney, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.

What they're saying: Dave Wasserman, Cook's U.S. House senior editor, asked on Twitter: "Is the 'red wave' ebbing?" To which he answered, "probably not much."

  • "But as Dems show more signs of life and Rs nominate several problematic candidates, we're downgrading our House outlook."
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