Bird flu crisis enters new phase
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Dozens of newly confirmed cases of avian influenza (AI) in wild birds and the first verified U.S. case of a new strain of the virus are raising concern the bird flu crisis may be entering a troubling new phase.
Why it matters: While the developments don't necessarily raise the risk of a pandemic, they could create more havoc for farmers, exacerbate egg shortages and expose more gaps in government disease surveillance.
- The outbreak is intensifying as the Trump administration maintains a pause on most external federal health agency communications, including publication of CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), a venerable source of scientific reports on public health.
Zoom in: Arkansas is the third-largest poultry-producing state in the U.S., harvesting more than 1 billion birds during 2022, according to WATT Poultry.
Reality check: But the state's chicken farmers have seen a relatively small impact during the past three years. So far in 2025, only two flocks totaling about 126,000 birds in Arkansas have been diagnosed with AI.
Driving the news: The Department of Agriculture last week confirmed 81 detections of highly pathogenic avian flu in wild birds collected across 24 states between Dec. 29 and Jan. 17.
Flashback: An outbreak, mostly in the Midwest, in 2015 impacted the production of table eggs and turkey meat. Though broiler chickens weren't heavily infected, exports dropped 26%. Egg exports fell 13% and turkey by 23%.
- The USDA estimated the cost to the federal government was more than $1 billion — $879 million to manage the crisis and about $200 million in indemnities for lost birds.
What they're saying: "If you look at what's happened the last eight weeks, the number of poultry operations that have gone down — and more recently, the duck operations — is absolutely stunning," Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota told Axios.
- "There is a lot of H5N1 out there. And we're going to see more cases in humans," he said.
- But "they're going to be single, isolated cases," he said.