Arvest Skyline Report documented 20 years of rapid Northwest Arkansas growth
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
The Arvest Skyline Report marks a new data point this quarter: It turns 20 years old.
Why it matters: No other entity has so painstakingly — or so locally — tracked the growth and development of Northwest Arkansas through real estate for so long. Much of the data is shared publicly for the common good of the region.
- For two decades, developers, bankers, investors and real estate agents have used Skyline info to help make business decisions — especially during times of turmoil like the 2008 Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic.
State of play: Arvest shared results of the latest report covering the first half of 2024 at an event for those key audiences in Springdale Thursday morning, and convened a series of panels and speakers to discuss the market.
Inside the room: The topline message from those speaking was that NWA needs more.
- More lots to develop, more single-family homes, more multifamily units, more commercial space, and that all means more water, sewer, infrastructure, energy and roads.
Stunning stat: The population of Austin, Texas was about 556,000 in 1995; NWA's today is about 572,000 and expected to top 1 million by 2050.
Some key points:
- Not only is there a shortage of homes, there's a shortage of skilled labor to build the homes, according to Maria Lau, Arvest's mortgage manager for Benton County.
- Adjacent communities in Oklahoma and Missouri will benefit from NWA's growth, Paul Esterer, managing partner of NWA's Moses Tucker partners, said.
- Esterer noted that nonprofits and churches trying to grow parts of the community also are struggling with low vacancies and higher rents.
"The office market in Northwest Arkansas is the envy of the rest of the country," economist Mervin Jebaraj, director of UA's Center for Business and Economic Research, said.
- The vacancy rate is 7.4% locally, but about 20% nationally, he said.
- "It looks like we're building a lot of multifamily units in Northwest Arkansas. Unfortunately, the vacancy rate stays stubbornly low, so it's getting absorbed very rapidly."
About 61% of the housing starts during the first half of 2024 were outside of the big four cities, per Wes Craiglow of the Urban Land Institute of Northwest Arkansas, meaning smaller communities are expanding at a faster overall rate.
Jebaraj and Craiglow applauded Rogers for spearheading a new comprehensive development plan that streamlines zoning and opens its main corridors to new development.
What we're watching: After more than a year of Jebaraj encouraging changes to NWA's zoning ordinances, it will be interesting to see if Bentonville, Fayetteville and Springdale follow Rogers' lead.
Go deeper: See key stats from the report.