Arkansas' birth rate declines over past 15 years
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Arkansas' birth rate fell nearly 20% between 2007 and 2022.
Context: The state has the 20th-highest birth rate in the nation, coming in a little above the national average of 11.1 births per 1,000 people. Arkansas' rate fell from 14.5 births per 1,000 people in 2007 to 11.7 in 2022.
- The nationwide birth rate declined 23% from 14.3 births per 1,000 people in 2007.
Why it matters: Birth rates tend to fall as income rises, meaning lower birth rates can reflect greater prosperity at both the national and individual levels. (Many factors drive this, including a sense among wealthier people that they need fewer children to support them financially as they age.)
- Yet, the opposite can also be true, as people who feel they can't afford children choose not to have them.
- Lower birth rates can also be an indication of better access to contraception, family planning and abortion.
- And they tend to be lower in societies with higher rates of women in the workforce — though that relationship is becoming increasingly complicated. (That doesn't hold up as well in places with stronger parental-leave laws, for example.)
- Some fear that if the birth rate dips too low, it will bring about a crisis where there are too few young people to care for an aging populace.
The intrigue: Before COVID-19, the national birth rate was steadily declining year over year, except for a slight bump in 2014.
- It dropped from 11.4 in 2019 to 11.0 in 2020, remained flat in 2021 and even ticked up slightly in 2022 to 11.1.
Yes, but: The number of births nationwide increased only slightly from 2021 to 2022, from 3.66 million to 3.67 million.
- The overall population, however, fell from 333.3 million to 331.9 million. Fewer people + a relatively constant number of births = a greater birth rate.
- Ultimately, stabilization from the pandemic and the 2022 uptick in birth rates may only be a "short-term deviation from an ongoing trend of considerably greater importance," a Brookings Institution report states.
The bottom line: It'll take a few more years before the pandemic's impact on birth rates is fully understood. Meanwhile, it seems likely the overall rate will resume its downward trend as post-pandemic normality continues to return.