How a Supreme Court case could reshape the South's congressional representation
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Louisiana voters and elected officials are waiting on a Supreme Court decision that could reshape voting in much of the South.
Why it matters: The case targets the Voting Rights Act, a key tool for challenging racially discriminatory election maps, and could allow Republicans to lock in more congressional seats across the South.
The big picture: Louisiana lawmakers, civil rights groups and other citizens have been in a back-and-forth over the state's congressional map for years.
- In the latest chapter, a group of Louisianans who self-described as "non-African Americans" sued the state for relying too heavily on race for its current congressional map. Federal judges agreed, which set the stage for the Supreme Court to take on Louisiana v. Callais.
The intrigue: After deferring the case over the summer, the Supreme Court expanded its potential impact beyond Louisiana by asking lawyers back this fall to address the case's implications on the Fourteenth and Fifteenth amendments, which deal with race and elections.
- The implications lie with Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which was intended to protect Black voters from disenfranchisement by preventing race-based voting discrimination.
- A Supreme Court decision that chips away Section 2, as it seems poised to do, can extend far beyond Louisiana.
What they're saying: The Voting Rights Act "was the guardrail," said April Albright, the national legal director with the voting rights advocacy group Black Voters Matter.
- If it goes away, "there's nothing left, because most of these red states also don't have robust protections for voting rights in their own state constitutions."
State of play: Black Voters Matter gamed out what that could look like.
- It found that, if the Voting Rights Act gets stripped, Republicans could secure an additional 27 U.S. House seats, compared to 2024 maps. At least 19 would be tied directly to losing Section 2.
- Those changes typically take years to play out but, Albright says, with the Supreme Court siding with mid-decade map rewrites, it's possible it could happen much faster.
Case in point: A recent Texas redistricting decision at least indicates the justices are already in the weeds on map matters.
- In that case, Texas lawmakers had crafted a mid-decade congressional map favorable to Republicans. That map remains under contest, but the Supreme Court ruled it can be used for now even though it's "indisputable" that Texas passed a new map "for partisan advantage pure and simple," Axios' Megan Stringer reports.
"It defies our rule of law," Rep. Troy Carter, a Democrat who represents one of two majority Black districts in Louisiana, tells Axios New Orleans.
- "Every time we have a change in the White House, are we going to go back and, likewise, change the demographics of our congressional seats? It's not what the framers of the Constitution intended."
What we're watching: The Supreme Court doesn't share details on when it'll issue rulings.
- Louisiana voters head to the polls to select congressional leadership in 2026, and state lawmakers already held a special session to adjust next year's election calendar in hopes of an early winter ruling from the Supreme Court.
- But ultimately, any decision timing is up to the justices.