New Orleans under tropical storm watch ahead of Francine: What to expect
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Residents were filling up their vehicles and gas cans Monday in Metairie in advance of Tropical Storm Francine. Photo: Carlie Kollath Wells/Axios
New Orleans metro is forecast to get flash flooding, gusty winds and storm surge from Tropical Storm Francine, which is expected to make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane.
Why it matters: Now is the time to prepare.
The big picture: Francine strengthened Monday and is expected to become a hurricane soon, the National Hurricane Center said in its 7pm update.
- It has max winds of 65 mph and "significant strengthening is forecast over the next couple days," the advisory said.
- Francine was about 425 miles southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, as of 7pm Monday. Landfall is forecast around 1pm Wednesday.
- Lafayette, Houma and Louisiana's coast are expected to get the worst of the storm on its current track. See the latest path.
Threat level: Gov. Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency Monday and encouraged residents to be "cautious and vigilant." Leaders in New Orleans and Jefferson Parish did the same. Go deeper.
- Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for Louisiana's coast. New Orleans is under a tropical storm watch as of Monday night.
- A storm surge up to 10 feet is forecast for parts of the coast, along with damaging hurricane-force winds and "considerable" flash flooding from up to 12 inches of rain, the National Hurricane Center said in the 7pm forecast.
- Grand Isle has issued evacuation orders, and schools have started announcing closures in South Louisiana.
- See the school closure list for New Orleans metro.
Timing, rain forecast for New Orleans
Here's what to expect in New Orleans with the current path, which could shift.
Timing: The winds could reach New Orleans metro as early as Tuesday night, NHC says.
- The mostly likely arrival, though, is Wednesday morning.
Rain: New Orleans could get 3-6 inches of rain into Thursday morning, with more in localized areas.
- The ground is already saturated from last week's rain, the National Weather Service said, so flash flooding and runoff are likely.
Wind: Winds of 10 to 20 mph are possible, with gusts up to 35 mph, according to the National Weather Service. There's a potential for wind up to 57 mph.
- Unsecured lightweight objects will be blown around, large tree limbs may break off, and damage to porches, sheds and unanchored mobile homes is possible, NWS says.
- Scattered power outages are possible, NWS says, along with hazardous driving conditions on bridges.
Storm surge: A storm surge up to 4 feet is possible on Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, NHC says.
- A storm surge watch is in effect for both lakes. That means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours.
- Some roads and parking lots may be covered in surge water, NWS says, especially Lakeshore Drive and the vicinity of West End Park, Breakwater Park and around Lakefront Airport.
- See the forecast map.
Tornadoes: There's potential for a few tornadoes, NWS says. Make alternative plans if you don't have a safe shelter.
Zoom out: See more details about New Orleans' impacts and more impact forecasts for other parts of Louisiana.
Editor's note: This is a developing story and has been updated to reflect the 7pm forecast Monday from the National Hurricane Center.
Go deeper
- How New Orleans officials are prepping the city
- 5 ways to prep for Tropical Storm Francine right now
- Hurricane prep tips for Louisianans
- Here's the status of New Orleans' levees and power grid
- What's in our hurricane emergency kits.
