Scoop: House Majority PAC to spend big on unseating Ogles
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The pro-Democrat House Majority PAC will pour an unprecedented amount of advertising dollars into the Nashville media market this year in hopes of flipping the U.S. House seat held by Republican Rep. Andy Ogles.
Why it matters: For decades, Nashville has been a political afterthought on the national stage, but all indications are that Music City will be among the key battlegrounds for control of Congress this year.
Driving the news: The House Majority PAC (HMP) revealed its initial advertising strategy Thursday morning. Plans call for spending in 68 media markets, including Nashville.
By the numbers: A House Majority spokesperson tells Axios the group will commit $1.56 million in initial television and digital advertising in Middle Tennessee.
- Nationally, the group intends to spend $272 million — its largest ever early investment — as it girds for a battle to take the House.
Between the lines: Nearly 80% of its advertising reservations are in markets where the group hopes to flip Republican-held seats.
What he's saying: "HMP's historic television and digital ad reservations reflect that Democrats are firmly on offense heading into November," President Mike Smith said in a statement.
The big picture: National Democrats haven't invested in flipping a Republican-held House seat in the Nashville area in recent memory.
- Separate from the HMP, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has also targeted Ogles' seat.
- The Democratic National Committee campaign chair told Axios earlier this month that the South is key to its 2026 strategy.
Zoom in: The Democratic candidate in November figures to be Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, who has raised $1.8 million.
- Nashville Councilmember Mike Cortese is also vying for the Democratic nomination.
The other side: Ogles' own fundraising numbers have been subpar. He had about $85,000 in his campaign account on his most recent disclosure.
- It's a shockingly low number for an incumbent in a majority party facing challenges from his right and left.
- Ogles first must survive a challenge from former state official Charlie Hatcher in the District 5 August primary.
Reality check: Ogles has overcome middling fundraising in the past to win elections.
- He fought through a crowded primary in 2022 to eventually win the gerrymandered District 5 seat, which includes parts of Nashville, its suburbs and more rural neighboring counties.
- President Trump won the district by 18 percentage points in 2024, indicating it would have to be an overwhelming blue wave for Democrats to have a shot at unseating the incumbent.