Tennessee special election emerges as unlikely House battleground
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House Speaker Mike Johnson in Franklin on Monday, holding his phone to the microphone so that the crowd could hear from President Trump. Photo: Brett Carlsen/Getty Images
Tennessee's 7th Congressional District was designed just a few years ago to hand Republicans an easy win, but this year it has become an unlikely battleground with a credible Democratic candidate vying for an upset.
Why it matters: Republicans and Democrats alike are looking at the special election on Tuesday as a critical bellwether heading into the 2026 midterms.
State of play: Trump won the 7th District by 22 points in 2024, suggesting a comfortable margin for Republicans. But the race has gotten surprisingly tight, drawing national attention and a flurry of last-minute campaigning.
- The latest Emerson College poll shows Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn by only 2 points, within the margin of error.
Between the lines: Democrats are emboldened by a wave of big wins in November that saw liberals of all stripes outperforming expectations across the country.
- Behn's campaign message has been laser-focused on affordability, which was a winning issue in last month's elections.
The big picture: Should Republicans lose — or win narrowly — it would further expectations that the party is heading toward a perilous midterm election.
- The outcome could also send a message to soul-searching Dems, given Behn's firmly progressive stances and her background as an activist.
The latest: The clearest indication that the race is close was an all-out blitz from President Trump and national Republicans ahead of the Dec. 2 election.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson barnstormed the district on Monday. At an event in Franklin, Johnson called Trump and put his phone up to the microphone.
What he's saying: "The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they're watching your district," Trump said over Johnson's speakerphone, per the New York Times.
- Trump also took to social media to attack Behn and urge his MAGA base to turn out for Van Epps.
By the numbers: Both sides are pouring money and resources into the race to replace former U.S. Rep. Mark Green.
- MAGA Inc., the principal Trump-aligned super PAC, spent more than $1.5 million. Two other pro-Van Epps groups — Conservatives for American Excellence and Club for Growth Action — have spent six-figure sums apiece.
- Two liberal groups — House Majority PAC and Your Community PAC — have combined to spend around $1 million.
Flashback: In 2022, state lawmakers redesigned District 7 with an eye toward favoring Republicans. They included a sliver of blue Nashville, but packed the district with enough rural voters to tilt it into a safe seat for conservatives.
The bottom line: Ruby-red Tennessee will offer a crucial temperature check from the electorate heading into a high-stakes election year.