COVID hospitalizations spike in Tennessee
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
COVID-19 hospitalization rates across Tennessee rose 48% between June and July amid signs of a late summer wave sweeping the country.
By the numbers: The average COVID-19 hospitalization rate nationwide rose about 17% between June and July, per the latest available Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
- A new variant, EG.5, is now the dominant form in the U.S., according to CDC estimates — though it's unclear if it's directly responsible for the rising numbers.
Reality check: In both percentage change and raw terms, hospitalizations remain far below their pandemic-era peak.
- They're down 82% nationally year over year, and the CDC reports 10,320 overall hospital admissions in the week between July 30-Aug. 5, compared to more than 150,000 in one week in January 2022.
- Hospitalizations are down 85% in Tennessee year over year.
What's happening: Simply put, our guard is down.
- Many of us put COVID in our rearview mirrors, leaving us both mentally and practically ill-prepared for another wave.
- "[E]xperts warn the U.S. is lacking critical tools to help manage future waves," as Axios' Sabrina Moreno recently reported.
Zoom in: Hospitalization rates are rising the fastest in Mississippi (+73% month over month), Alabama (+66%) and Louisiana (+66%).
- Yet they're down in Michigan (-32%), Vermont (-31%) and Rhode Island (-31%).
- As learned from past waves, COVID moves around the country unequally, ebbing in some areas and flowing in others at any given point in time.
Be smart: With so little testing happening these days compared to the height of the pandemic, hospitalization rates are now one of the best proxies for estimating broader viral spread.
Yes, but: Hospitalizations aren't a perfect metric.
- Because older people are more vulnerable to severe COVID, for example, hospitalization rates are likely to be higher in states or communities with older populations. (To that end, nursing home cases are also rising.) Vaccination rates can be a factor, too.
- Hospitalization rates are also a lagging indicator — it takes time for infected people to become sick, and more time still for them to become sick enough to require hospitalization. That delay means hospitalizations are a reflection of what's already happened, rather than a useful early-warning tool.
Other signs also point to increased spread.
- Wastewater analysis, for instance, is detecting rising levels of SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19 — nationwide.
- Such analyses are especially useful in a world with less individual testing, as wastewater can reveal broad trends across wide areas, absent mass nose-swabbing campaigns.
Still, this uptick comes at a less-than-ideal time with regard to booster availability.
- A newly updated booster is due out this fall. While it wasn't specifically designed with EG.5 in mind, it will likely offer at least some protection, experts told NBC News.
- Those behind on their shots need to decide whether it makes sense to wait for the updated booster or beef up their protection now in the face of this uptick.
The bottom line: There's no sign we're headed for anything like the waves of the peak pandemic era. But it's still an alarming trend, and a reminder that COVID will remain a public health concern for the foreseeable future.