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The housing market is showing signs of life after veering into a dead zone late last year.

Driving the news: Pending home sales were up 3% nationwide in December, according to Redfin's proprietary measure.

That was the first monthly increase since October 2021, reports Axios' Emily Peck.

Why it matters: These green shoots are a good sign for the economy overall, and run counter to some of the dire predictions made last fall.

What's happening: Home buyers are making peace with higher mortgage rates, and sellers are making peace with the need to cut prices. 

Between the lines: Mortgage rates are dropping. Rates peaked at over 7% in November but have dropped to an average rate of 6.13% on a 30-year mortgage, per Freddie Mac data from last week.

That's the lowest level since mid-September.

The intrigue: Houston is a top destination for out-of-state buyers looking to relocate to a cheaper market.

Houston ranked ninth nationally among markets home buyers moved into, just behind Dallas, which ranked sixth. 

The biggest influx of new residents came from New York — not California, surprisingly. 

What they're saying: Houston Association of Realtors chair Cathy Treviño said that while Houston is not seeing the same volume of sales as last January, there are signs of more activity, "pointing in the right direction."

"Home buyers and sellers are starting to get accustomed to what our market is and understanding that the 3% [interest rate] was just not a normal market. … People still need to buy homes and sellers still need to sell." 

Zoom in: Single-family home sales for 2022 in Houston were down 10.9% compared to 2021's record high, marking the first decrease since 2015, according to HAR.

The median sale price for single-family homes in 2022 was $338,295, 12% higher than in 2021. 

In December, sales for single-family homes dropped 32.6% year over year and the median sales price was $330,000, 3.8% higher than last year.

The bottom line: Home buyers and sellers have adjusted their expectations. What once seemed high now seems like sort of a deal.

Houston housing market is improving

Home buyers and sellers have adjusted their expectations.

Illustration of a zombie's hand emerging from a grave, clutching keys.

Real estate

The housing market is showing signs of life after veering into a dead zone late last year.Driving the news: Pending home sales were up 3% nationwide in December, according to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Redfin&#x27;s proprietary measure" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/30396516.33/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmVkZmluLmNvbS9uZXdzL2hvdXNpbmctbWFya2V0LXRyYWNrZXItZGVjZW1iZXItMjAyMi8_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNlbmR0b19sb2NhbG5ld3NsZXR0ZXJ0ZXN0JnN0cmVhbT10b3A/62f6ab20d173ab15f0173903B33d53747" data-vars-content-id="1cb4a40a-3b4a-4f45-9e16-c2291923d8a8" data-vars-headline="Houston housing market is improving" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/30396516.33/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmVkZmluLmNvbS9uZXdzL2hvdXNpbmctbWFya2V0LXRyYWNrZXItZGVjZW1iZXItMjAyMi8_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNlbmR0b19sb2NhbG5ld3NsZXR0ZXJ0ZXN0JnN0cmVhbT10b3A/62f6ab20d173ab15f0173903B33d53747" target="_self">Redfin&#x27;s proprietary measure</a>.

Real Estate

Houston-area renters spent $83 more a month in 2023 if their apartment landlords used software developed by Texas-based RealPage, according to a new analysis from the White House Council of Economic Advisers first shared with Axios.

Why it matters: U.S. renters spent an extra $3.8 billion last year because of pricing algorithms used by landlords, the analysis found.

RealPage controls 80% of the market for rent-setting software. The Department of Justice has filed an antitrust suit against the company, alleging its pricing algorithm allows landlords to collectively push rents higher.

What they found: The researchers evaluated two scenarios: property managers using RealPage software to set prices and landlords setting prices individually.

U.S. renters who lived in a building that used a price-setting algorithm spent an average of $70 more a month.

Renters in metro areas where RealPage use is more common spent even more in 2023.

Zoom in: Atlanta had the highest use of the software among landlords of multifamily housing, with nearly 70% using RealPage products. Renters in those buildings spent an average of $181 more a month, per the CEA's analysis.

The Houston metro had the seventh highest usage of the software, with about 40% of landlords using it.

What they're saying: "We are disappointed The White House CEA never contacted RealPage about their report, which is riddled with flawed assumptions," company spokeswoman Jennifer Bowcock said in a statement Wednesday.

"Their conclusions are based on the erroneous assumption that all property managers are setting coordinated rents, but that is not how RealPage's revenue management software (RMS) works."

Reality check: In December, the company filed a motion seeking to dismiss the DOJ's claims in the antitrust suit, arguing that the agency hasn't shown any real anticompetitive effects of its product.

The White House report notes that a long-term shortage of affordable housing is the main reason rents are increasing.

What we're watching: Whether the incoming Trump administration will pursue the suit against RealPage. The analysis looks like the White House's last push to draw attention to the issue.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include a response from RealPage.

Pricing software raises Houston-area rent, report finds

U.S. renters spent an extra $3.8 billion last year because of pricing algorithms used by landlords.

A Houston home with a "For Rent" sign out front

A Houston home for rent. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Houston-area renters spent $83 more a month in 2023 if their apartment landlords used software developed by <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Texas-based RealPage" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/dallas/2022/10/18/texas-company-raising-rents" data-vars-content-id="27627d8d-e67c-4804-8d97-f0254a3f7015" data-vars-headline="Pricing software raises Houston-area rent, report finds" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/dallas/2022/10/18/texas-company-raising-rents" target="_self">Texas-based RealPage</a>, according to a new <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="analysis" data-vars-click-url="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/12/17/the-cost-of-anticompetitive-pricing-algorithms-in-rental-housing/" data-vars-content-id="27627d8d-e67c-4804-8d97-f0254a3f7015" data-vars-headline="Pricing software raises Houston-area rent, report finds" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/12/17/the-cost-of-anticompetitive-pricing-algorithms-in-rental-housing/" target="_blank">analysis</a> from the White House Council of Economic Advisers first shared with Axios.Why it matters: U.S. renters spent an extra $3.8 billion last year because of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="pricing algorithms" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2024/08/29/realpage-doj-lawsuit" data-vars-content-id="27627d8d-e67c-4804-8d97-f0254a3f7015" data-vars-headline="Pricing software raises Houston-area rent, report finds" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/08/29/realpage-doj-lawsuit" target="_self">pricing algorithms</a> used by landlords, the analysis found.

News

Here's an early holiday gift: Gas prices are staying low in the Houston metro.

Why it matters: It's good news for drivers hitting the road for the holidays.

By the numbers: The average gallon of gas cost $2.52 Wednesday in Harris County, according to GasBuddy.

Between the lines: Gas prices typically drop in autumn and winter as Americans drive less, reducing demand.

The big picture: More than 119 million Americans are projected to travel during the Christmas and New Year's holiday period, narrowly surpassing the previous record set in 2019, per AAA.

Nearly 90% of holiday travelers will be driving to their destinations.

Meanwhile, the Houston Airport System anticipates a 7% increase in holiday travel compared to the same period in 2023. 

Between now and Jan. 6, about 3.4 million passengers are expected to travel through George Bush Intercontinental Airport and William P. Hobby Airport. 

More good news: Hobby Airport has new TSA scanners that eliminate the need to remove laptops and liquids. 

Houston gets cheap gas and new TSA scanners for holiday travel

Here's an early holiday gift: Hobby Airport has new TSA scanners that eliminate the need to remove laptops and liquids.

A line chart that illustrates average gas prices for regular unleaded gasoline in the Houston metro area from December 2023 to December 2024. Houston prices peaked at $3.154 in April 2024, while national prices reached $3.639. Overall, Houston prices showed a downward trend, ending at $2.499.

Here&#x27;s an early holiday gift: Gas prices are staying low in the Houston metro.Why it matters: It&#x27;s good news for drivers hitting the road for the holidays.

Travel

Office space available for lease in the U.S. is at a record high, according to data from CoStar.

Why it matters: Remote work is already crushing the office market, and the data is a sign that the distress is going to get worse — vacancies, already at historic highs, will likely go higher.

Zoom in: At 22.2%, Houston's share of rental space available is among the highest in the country.

Details: Looking at office availability is different from looking at office vacancy rates. Availability doesn't look just at empty offices. It includes occupied office space where the tenant has notified the landlord they won't be renewing.

And, crucially, availability takes into account leased office space where a tenant is trying to sublet the office.

For example, a company that no longer needs all the floors it leased before COVID will try to sublet the space to someone else.

Of note: The amount of space available for sublease has jumped since the onset of the pandemic.

Over the last three years it's been "piling up and up and up," said Phil Mobley, national director of office analytics at CoStar. "There's a strong likelihood that much of that is going to convert into vacancy when the original lease term expires."

Meanwhile, a number of decades-old office towers in Houston are being converted to apartment buildings.

The long-vacant 45-story ExxonMobil headquarters, the classic 1927 Niels Esperson and Mellie Esperson buildings and the 20-story, 1960s-era building at 1801 Smith St. are all being transformed into apartments.

Houston still has an abundance of office space

Houston has the one of the highest share of rental spaces available in the country, at 22.2%.

Office space available for lease in the U.S. is at a record high, according to data from CoStar.Why it matters: Remote work is already crushing the office market, and the data is a sign that the distress is going to get worse — vacancies, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="already at historic highs" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/16/the-long-anticipated-office-reckoning-is-upon-us" data-vars-content-id="abffa2c7-5294-4073-8dd9-f0f78e4caf9b" data-vars-headline="Houston still has an abundance of office space" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/16/the-long-anticipated-office-reckoning-is-upon-us" target="_self">already at historic highs</a>, will likely go higher.

Port of Houston dockworkers are on strike, joining thousands of unionized longshoremen along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts after the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) failed to reach a new labor contract agreement with the union.

Why it matters: Longshoremen are critical to port operations, and a prolonged work stoppage could snarl supply chains, leading to higher prices and shortages of goods like auto parts, bananas and other foreign goods.

The Port of Houston is the fifth-largest container port in the county and the largest on the Gulf Coast.

Driving the news: The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) rejected the USMX's final proposal, made on Monday.

About 45,000 dockworkers are on strike. Workers at more than a dozen ports walked off work just after midnight on Tuesday after their six-year contract expired, with no indication of how long the halt on activity will last.

Friction point: Negotiations started more than a year ago between the union and the USMX, which represents ocean carriers and port operators. But they stalled in June over labor-saving technology.

The two sides are far apart on pay and automation provisions, as the union wants more protections from automated technology replacing human workers.

Flashback: The walkout is the first of its kind since 1977, well before the rise in global trade that's made shipping even more critical for the country's supply chain.

By the numbers: In Houston, the impact of the strike on exports could reach as high as $51 million per day, while imports could be affected by up to $41.5 million per day, according to a report by Mitre Corp., a public interest nonprofit.

A strike could cost the U.S. economy between $3.8 billion and $4.5 billion per day, according to a JPMorgan analysis.

JPMorgan estimated that for each day the ports are shut down, it will take roughly six days to clear the backlog.

State of play: Major importers, including large retail chains, have been preparing for a strike for months, so there won't be an immediate shortage or price hike. But University of Houston supply chain and logistics technology program director Margaret Kidd told KHOU that if there's an extended strike, it could impact what we pay at the grocery store because a lot of our perishables come by ship from South and Central America.

H-E-B confirmed with ABC 13 that it does not expect the strike to impact customers right now.

What they're saying: "If we have to be out here a month or two months, this world will collapse," ILA president Harold Daggett tells CNN. "Go blame them. Don't blame me, blame them."

The other side: The USMX said in a statement Monday that it had "traded counteroffers related to wages" ahead of the strike action.

Go deeper: Biden administration has declined to intervene. 

Here's what a prolonged dock strike could pinch

Dockworkers strike at Port of Houston

Workers at more than a dozen ports across the country walked off work just after midnight on Tuesday.

Illustration of a forklift holding a cargo container with "STRIKE" written on it.

Protests

Port of Houston dockworkers are on strike, joining thousands of unionized longshoremen along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts after the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) failed to reach a new labor contract agreement with the union.Why it matters: Longshoremen are critical to port operations, and a prolonged work stoppage could snarl supply chains, leading to higher prices and shortages of goods like auto parts, bananas <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="and other foreign goods." data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/01/dockworkers-port-strike-products-impacted" data-vars-content-id="c74f1038-e0c7-42aa-ac06-131cd4e87b8f" data-vars-headline="Dockworkers strike at Port of Houston" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/01/dockworkers-port-strike-products-impacted" target="_self">and other foreign goods.</a>

Latest news on Wall Street, Corporate America and financial regulation.

Business

Shortfalls will soon start to appear

National

A line chart that tracks daily Brent crude oil prices per barrel from Feb. 1 to April 20, 2026. Prices rose from $66.21 on Feb. 1 to a peak of $115.89 on March 8, then swung lower. By April 20, Brent stood at $94.95.

Brent crude oil  

Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Emily Peck/Axios

The red state gold rush

With Allbirds AI pivot, a familiar strategy takes flight

A line chart that shows daily net retail investor purchases of Allbirds stock from Nov. 1, 2021, to April 15, 2026. Retail net turnover ranges from a low of negative $347,342.45 to a high of $5,236,684.64 and falls to -$950k on april 16.

Net amount of Allbirds stock bought by retail investors

The S&P 500 keeps hitting all-time highs

A bar chart that shows S&P 500 all-time highs by decade. The 1990s recorded the most at 310, followed by the 2010s at 242 and the 1960s at 218. The 2000s had the fewest at 13. The 2020s, at 204, already exceed the 1980sâ 189.

Emily Peck

Featured stories

Shortfalls will soon start to appear

The red state gold rush

With Allbirds AI pivot, a familiar strategy takes flight

The S&P 500 keeps hitting all-time highs

Private credit risk? This is fine