How the Texas redistricting map changes the Black and Latino vote
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Texas' mid-decade congressional map concentrates Black and Latino voters in fewer districts and disrupts how their communities are represented, political experts tell Axios.
Why it matters: Two lawsuits claim the map, awaiting Gov. Greg Abbott's signature, discriminates against Black and Latino voters.
- Texas Republicans argue the new map is about increasing political power, not racial discrimination.
State of play: Democrats say Republicans are "packing" more voters into smaller districts that already vote Democratic, while "cracking" and splitting some communities across multiple districts.
The other side: Republicans point to an increase in the number of majority-Latino and Black districts.
- The new map, backed by President Trump, aims to flip five seats red.
- Republican Sen. Phil King said the goal was to preserve GOP control of the U.S. House, warning that without the map, "there is an extreme risk that that Republican majority will be lost" in next year's midterm election.
By the numbers: The new map would increase the number of majority-Hispanic districts from seven to eight and create two majority-Black districts where there were none before, per demographic data provided by the Texas Legislative Council.
- Yes, but: Many districts labeled majority Latino on paper may not translate into real voting power, since census counts include noncitizens, Kareem Crayton, with the Brennan Center for Justice, tells Axios.
- The number of districts without a clear majority racial group drops from nine to four, reducing areas where multiracial coalitions once played a decisive role, Crayton adds.
Zoom in: The new district map is changing the "representation of Latinos from being more of an urban focus to more of a ex-urban or rural focus," Brandon Rottinghaus, University of Houston political science professor, tells Axios.
- As a result, "urban, normally Democratic-leaning votes are being diluted into districts that stretch beyond the urban core," making it more challenging for "clear representation in core pockets of where Latinos live."
Case in point: The 29th District, a Latino-majority district held by Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston), has been reshaped, making it less urban and just 43.3% Latino.
Meanwhile, the Black vote has been "fairly well consolidated or shifted," Rottinghaus says — a trend visible in the 9th District, the longtime Democratic stronghold of Rep. Al Green, which would stretch north and east of Houston, losing Black voters and gaining white and Hispanic voters.
- The changes can also be read as reducing Black political representation by combining Black representatives into overlapping districts, weakening the urban core that has anchored them, Crayton says.
The latest: Green on Tuesday said he won't run in November's special election for Houston's 18th District — left open after Sylvester Turner's death this year — but he isn't ruling out a bid for the newly drawn seat in 2026, per the Houston Chronicle.
What they're saying: "You're certainly seeing Republicans leaning on the Latino vote with the hope that that's going to produce a victory for them in these new maps. There's no guarantee that's the case," Rottinghaus says.
What we're watching: The map is being challenged in court under the Voting Rights Act. Courts will weigh whether the lines are partisan maneuvering — which is legal — or racial discrimination, which isn't.
- The process will likely move quickly due to the upcoming election deadlines, Crayton says.