Greater Houston Partnership predicts strong regional economy, job forecast
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The Houston region is expected to create 71,200 jobs in the upcoming year, according to the Greater Houston Partnership's latest forecast.
The big picture: Houston's economy is strong as we're heading into 2025, per GHP's chief economist Patrick Jankowski.
- Though uncertainties remain — particularly regarding how the U.S. economy will shift with Congress and presidency changes — the local economy is on track to expand.
State of play: Houston is projected to finish 2025 with over 3.5 million employed people, marking a record high for the region, per GHP's annual Houston region economic outlook released Thursday.
- Most of Houston sectors are projected to see growth. Health care is projected to lead the way with 12,800 additional jobs, followed by construction (10,200), professional and technical services (6,900), government (5,500) and restaurants and bars (5,200).
Context: Several factors will drive next year's growth, including a strong U.S. economy, declining interest rates, rising consumer confidence and new domestic and foreign businesses setting up in Houston.
- A backlog of construction projects, along with local income and population growth, further boosts job creation prospects.
By the numbers: The region should end 2024 with 58,000 new jobs.
- Total wages and salaries paid to area workers were up $12.9 billion, or 5.1%, for the year ending June '24 compared with the same period in 2023.
- In the first nine months of 2024, the GHP identified more than 500 companies that relocated to, expanded in or launched operations in Houston, or announced plans to do so.
Meanwhile, the Houston area saw some of the fastest economic growth among large U.S. metros last year, according to new data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- The Houston metro area's gross domestic product increased by 5.4% from 2022 to 2023, hitting $550.8 billion last year, per the federal data.
- That was the second-highest growth rate among metro areas with a population over 1.5 million, after only Seattle.
What they're saying: "Over the past two decades, Houston's GDP has grown 70% after adjusting for inflation," Jankowski writes in the report. "The long-term trend is clear. Houston is resilient. Tropical storms, frozen pipes, or falling oil prices won't prevent the region from growing next year or well into the next decade."
What we're watching: The 2025 economy faces uncertainties, including potential trade disputes raising prices, labor shortages from immigration policies, tax cuts increasing debt and interest rates, and the economic impact of a possible government shutdown, per the GHP.