Greater Houston Partnership's forecast for the local economy in 2024

Driving the news: There have already been signs of a slowdown locally: Houston created 53,700 jobs over the first 10 months of the year, down from 122,800 over the same period in 2022; construction activity has been trending downward; and sales tax collection was not as high as last year.

What they're saying: "The Houston region has been running at a sprint ever since emerging from the pandemic. So, while growth will slow down next year, Houston's economy remains resilient," said Patrick Jankowski, the GHP's chief economist.

Details: The region is projected to add 57,600 jobs in 2024, lower than recent years but still a healthy increase, Jankowski said.

• The GHP expects job losses will occur in construction, finance and insurance, information, and real estate, as these industries are impacted by higher interest rates, tighter lending standards and ongoing labor shortages.
• The GHP also expects a slump in commercial construction but predicts growth in arts, entertainment, health care, hotels, manufacturing, private education, restaurants, retail and more.

What we're watching: Houston's growth in 2024 is expected to be restrained by three factors: a tight labor market, persistent high interest rates and turmoil in commercial real estate.