Harris sparks new optimism for Iowa Democrats
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Iowa Democrats are increasingly optimistic following Vice President Kamala Harris' nomination.
State of play: The most recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed she made a double-digit dent in former President Trump's lead among likely voters in the Republican-controlled state.
Why it matters: Political scientists tell Axios the enthusiasm could bring more people to the polls, shift outcomes for down-ballot races and block a repeat of the state's 2022 red wave — though they warn it's still an uphill battle for Iowa Democrats.
By the numbers: President Biden trailed Donald Trump by 18 percentage points in the Register's June poll.
- But Trump's has fallen by 14 percentage points since Harris became the nominee. His 47% to 43% edge is now within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points.
Driving the news: The share of Iowa Democrats who say they are feeling optimistic about the presidential election has nearly doubled since the Harris switch — from 45% in June to 80% this month, the Register reports.
- Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker — who headlined this month's Polk County Democrats Steak Fry — told supporters he's confident Iowa can flip some of its four congressional seats currently held by Republicans, per the Register.
Flashback: Iowa Democrats lost all of the state's congressional seats and all but one statewide office in 2022.
- Republicans also expanded their majorities in the Iowa House and Senate that year.
Zoom in: Multiple Iowa congressional races are competitive this year, potentially shaping whether Republicans maintain control of the U.S. House.
- That includes the 3rd district race between GOP incumbent Zach Nunn and Democratic candidate Lanon Baccam.
Case in point: A Super PAC closely tied to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) recently poured more than $1 million into Iowa's 1st District race between GOP incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan.
- Democrats have spent 17% more than Republicans to try to unseat GOP Rep. Zach Nunn in the 3rd district, per an Axios analysis.
What they're saying: The new dynamics boost Democrats' chances of flipping seats, but it's not guaranteed, says David Redlawsk, a political science professor at the University of Delaware, who has written about Iowa politics.
- Tim Hagle, a political scientist at the University of Iowa, tells Axios that overall turnout and support from no-party and independent voters are among other factors to watch.