What a Democratic wave could look like in Colorado
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
The 2026 election is setting the stage for major Democratic victories in Colorado, both for candidates and causes.
- But the vote count will determine the election's — and the state's — shade of blue.
Why it matters: Colorado voters could help derail President Trump's agenda in Washington while giving Democrats a freer hand to control state policy.
State of play: The three scenarios, based on conversations with a dozen political strategists and experts, would play out like this:
A Democratic tide would maintain the status quo, with Democrats keeping every statewide elected office and giving the party a supermajority in the state House, where it's currently one seat short.
- The party would retake the 8th Congressional District by a slim margin and overcome Democratic analysts' concerns about candidate Manny Rutinel's weak campaign.
A wave would deliver Democrats even bigger wins in statewide races and punch a hole in Republicans' remaining strongholds.
- The benchmark is whether Democrats can win the 5th Congressional District for the first time in history. Polls and fundraising tallies favor Democrat Jessica Killin.
- That momentum would help Democrats win in El Paso, Garfield, Pueblo and Douglas counties.
- The surge would also propel Democrats to a supermajority in the state Senate, where the party must protect three seats and flip one — and defeat multiple conservative ballot measures.
A blue tsunami would hand Democrats seven of the state's House districts — if not all eight — and see record-level margins of victory in statewide races.
- The 3rd and 4th congressional districts could flip to Democrats, who are running strong campaigns backed by national money on traditionally Republican turf.
What they're saying: Conventional wisdom bets on a wave election, fueled by voter discontent with Trump and national Republicans as well as affordability concerns.
- "Colorado could have a sizable enough wave that electorally in 2026 we look a lot more like Massachusetts," Democratic strategist Craig Hughes tells me.
- "I lean to the wave," added political analyst Floyd Ciruli. "The national polls are of one view: Dissatisfaction with Trump, inflation and Iran are at historic levels and will cost Republicans huge losses."
The other side: Republican analysts concede Democrats hold the advantage.
- The party's focused on holding its four current congressional seats, and it hopes to poach one statewide seat, possibly for attorney general.
- Other victories that could mute a wave include a handful of conservative ballot measures that would cap the income tax rate at 4.4%, impose tougher criminal penalties in human trafficking and fentanyl cases and toughen voter ID laws.
The bottom line: Statewide victories would preserve Democrats' hold on power. Wins in Republican strongholds would redraw Colorado's political map.