Warren faces her crypto critic in first Mass. debate
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Photo illustration: Axios Visuals. Photos: Suzanne Kreiter/The Boston Globe and Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The cost of living in Massachusetts, the Bay State's trajectory and the future of the U.S. Senate will all be in play tonight as Sen. Elizabeth Warren and her Republican challenger John Deaton go head to head in their first debate.
Why it matters: Deaton, a personal injury attorney and cryptocurrency activist, is trying to unseat Warren by being the type of moderate Republican that used to be able to score the occasional victory in New England.
Yes, but: The latest polling suggests Deaton has barely made a dent in Warren's battle-hardened armor. She leads by over 20 points in several polls.
Go deeper: With undecided voters accounting for less than 10% of the likely electorate, Deaton would need to score some big wins over Warren to have any kind of shot.
- Tonight's debate and a subsequent engagement in Springfield on Thursday are his two best shots at changing voters' minds.
- It's no wonder Deaton has been clamoring for up to five debates against Warren, though the liberal icon only agreed to two.
Expect Warren to remind debate viewers that control of the Senate is neck and neck — meaning that adding even a moderate Republican like Deaton to a GOP majority would empower the right on a national level.
Deaton can claim he wouldn't be a threat to Democrats' national agenda on at least one topic: abortion.
- He's said he'll switch parties if Republicans push for a national abortion ban.
For Deaton or any Republican to win a Senate race during a presidential election year, they must court voters willing to split their ticket between parties.
- Just getting votes from former President Donald Trump's supporters isn't going to cut it here. He needs voters who favor Vice President Kamala Harris but want to get rid of Warren.
- Deaton is making some progress on this, as polls suggest he's at least a bit more popular than Trump.
What they're saying: Given expected high turnout among left-leaning voters and the fact that it's been a century since a GOP challenger ousted an incumbent senator in Massachusetts, "the chances of Deaton pulling an upset are infinitesimal," debate moderator Jon Keller wrote in a recent column.
- Still, Keller sees tonight's debate as more than a political footnote.
- A respectable showing by Deaton could help convince Massachusetts Republicans to shift away from the MAGA wing of the GOP and back to more moderate candidates, Keller wrote.
Flashback: Warren unseated incumbent Sen. Scott Brown in 2012 and cruised into her second term in 2018, beating Trump-aligned former State Rep. Geoff Diehl by 24 percentage points.
What's next: Tonight's one-hour debate airs at 8:30pm on WSBK-TV 38 and online.
The second debate is on Thursday at 7pm from NEPM's studio in Springfield. It'll be streamed at GBH and NEPM, and broadcast on GBH Channel 2 and 89.7 FM.