Boston's upward mobility potential shrinks for low-income families
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Americans born to low-income families in the Boston metro area are faring worse than the last generation, a new analysis finds.
Why it matters: Intergenerational mobility — the idea that you'll do better than your parents, your children will do better than you, and so on — is core to the American dream, but is far from a guarantee.
Driving the news: A new analysis from the Census Bureau and Opportunity Insights, a research group at Harvard University, found Greater Boston residents born to low-income families in 1992 were doing worse at age 27 than those born in 1978 were at that age.
- Those born in 1992 had an average household income of $32,913 at age 27.
- For those born in 1978, the average household income was $34,330 at age 27 (down just over 4%, adjusted to 2023 dollars).
Zoom out: It's not just Boston. The 1992 group was doing worse at age 27 than the 1978 group in 38 of the 50 biggest U.S. metro areas, per the analysis.
- Philadelphia had the biggest drop, with those born in 1992 making just $27,200 at age 27, compared to $31,200 for those born in 1978 (down 12.8%).
- Brownsville, Texas, had the biggest increase across generations: Those born in 1992 made $33,500 at age 27, compared to $31,400 for those born in 1978 (up 6.7%; adjusted to 2023 dollars).
Between the lines: The geography of mobility has shifted dramatically, especially when breaking down the data by race.
- Massachusetts offers more safety net programs than other areas of the country, but also has a stark racial wealth gap disproportionately affecting Black and Latino families.
- Even for low-income white children on the coasts and in the Southwest, upward mobility fell by 1992 to rates on par with those seen in Appalachia, per the researchers.
- By that point, upward mobility increased for Black children the most in the southeast and the Midwest, regions "where outcomes had historically been poorest for Black Americans," the researchers wrote.
Yes, but: "Black children born in 1992 still had poorer prospects of rising up than white children in virtually every county in America, because initial Black-white disparities were so large."
Go deeper: The cities with the best — and worst — upward mobility