Violent crime rates decline in Austin
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Violent crime fell sharply across the largest U.S. cities, including Austin, in early 2026, extending a nationwide decline that began after the pandemic-era crime spike.
Why it matters: Crime and policing have been a major factor at the ballot box in local elections, as Republicans including President Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott have tried to pin violent crime on Democrats.
Driving the news: Data from 67 major U.S. law enforcement agencies show violent crime fell across major categories during the first quarter compared with the same period in 2025.
- The quarterly reports collected by the Major Cities Chiefs Association have been a good measure of trends reflected in the annual FBI crime data released in the fall.
Yes, but: Last weekend's shooting spree in Austin belied the decline. Cristian Fajardo Mondragon, 17, is facing charges including aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, aggravated assault with a motor vehicle and deadly conduct.
- Four people were shot — and one victim remains in critical condition. Two other suspects, a 15- and 16-year-old, haven't been identified.
By the numbers: Homicides in Austin in the first quarter of this year dropped 11% from Q1 last year, though that was only from 18 homicides to 16.
- Rapes declined over 18%, from 163 to 133.
- Aggravated assaults decreased 4%, from 661 to 632.
- Robberies remained flat, falling from 188 to 187.
What they're saying: Contributing to the decline has been the Austin Police Department's "increased reliance on data and evidence-based policing strategies," APD spokesperson Clara Ash tells Axios.
- The department has also increased patrols in areas experiencing higher crime activity.
Zoom out: Some of the nation's biggest cities posted especially dramatic homicide declines in the first three months of 2026.
- Among those that saw sizable percentage drops in homicide were Washington (65%), Philadelphia (54%) and Memphis (34%).
- New York City experienced a 32% drop in homicides during Mayor Zohran Mamdani's first months in office.
Between the lines: The new numbers complicate the political narrative around crime heading into the 2026 midterms. Trump has repeatedly described major Democrat-led cities as gripped by violent crime.
The intrigue: Aurora, Colorado — a city Trump repeatedly and falsely singled out as being overrun by Venezuelan immigrant gangs during the 2024 election — saw a 67% drop in homicides.
The bottom line: "While year-over-year changes in categories like homicide and sexual assault can fluctuate because the overall numbers are relatively small, Austin Police has continued to see encouraging trends in overall violent crime reduction," Ash tells Axios.