What Democrats' wins in local Texas elections mean for the state
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Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa is suggesting recent school board and mayoral election results across the state signal hope for Democrats running in statewide races — but politics watchers tell Axios the suggestion is tenuous.
Why it matters: No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, but Democratic candidates are eager to show this year is different.
Driving the news: Hinojosa, who faces Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, declared in a news release that election results this month have illustrated "the coalition that's going to send Greg Abbott packing in November."
State of play: Hinojosa cites local election results in Pearland, Arlington, Grapevine, Denton, San Antonio and Travis County as wins for Democrats.
- In Travis County, for example, Tiffany Bennett and Natalie Nugent, who had the support of Lake Travis Voices for Progress, ousted GOP-aligned incumbents on the Lake Travis ISD Board of Trustees.
Yes, but: GOP-aligned candidates still had clout in some suburban areas. In the Eanes ISD board election, also in Travis County, two of the three candidates supported by GOP-aligned interests won.
The big picture: Special elections across the country have reflected Democratic voters' enthusiasm — or, put another way, desperation — in the Trump era.
- In January, Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a Texas Senate district in Tarrant County, easily beating a President Trump-back Republican.
The other side: "Every election, Democrats claim Texas is turning blue. Every election, Texans reject their radical agenda of open borders, boys in girls' sports, higher taxes, and soft-on-crime policies," Eduardo Leal, press secretary for the Abbott campaign, tells Axios. "This November will be no different."
The intrigue: Austin McCarty, an Austin-based government affairs adviser for the law firm K&L Gates and who previously worked for the Texas Association of Counties, tells Axios Democrats are "taking a page out of the Republican playbook in the Obama years."
- "Republicans became hyperfocused on municipal, county and school district races. That led to results farther up the ballot. ... Wins have a way of creating momentum for a party."
Reality check: The elections Hinojosa cites are nonpartisan — that is, the candidates are not running on the ballot as Republican or Democratic, one of the reasons the results could have limited implications for November, Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor, tells Axios.
- "At the end of the day, these races are about local issues," he says. In a state that has voted for Republicans the last 30 years, elections could be different when an R or D is by the candidates' names, he said.
- Also, turnout is dramatically lower in May elections — typically in the single-digits — compared to 45.9% of registered voters in the 2022 midterm election.
Follow the money: A lot more money will be at play, too. Republican statewide candidates in Texas typically have more money available than Democrats.
- Case in point: As of late February, per the latest campaign finance reports, Texans for Greg Abbott had $95 million on hand. Hinojosa's campaign had $617,635.
- A notable exception is state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), whose U.S. Senate campaign fundraising in the first quarter dwarfed that of his would-be Republican rivals.
Between the lines: For Hinojosa "to have any hope, she has to create some level of belief among Democratic donors that she has some potential for victory," Jones tells Axios.
The bottom line: Abbott leads Hinojosa by 6 percentage points among registered voters in the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll.
- Yes, but: That's a narrower margin that in the group's February poll, which showed Abbott leading by 10 points.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with a comment from Eduardo Leal, press secretary for Gov. Greg Abbott's reelection campaign.