Scoop: Austin Democrat Gina Hinojosa eyes run for Texas governor
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Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) in the Texas House Chamber in August. Photo: Mikala Compton/Austin American-Statesman via Getty Images
Texas state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin Democrat, has told at least two donors that she's running for governor next year, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: A Hinojosa win in the Democratic nomination would set up a battle with Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, for the state's Latino vote.
What they're saying: "I'm running for governor," Hinojosa told an Austin-area Democratic donor in an email. The donor did not want to be identified because it was a private exchange.
- Hinojosa's campaign did not respond to an interview request, but Austin political consultant David Butts, an adviser to her campaign, tells Axios "she's going to get in" — likely in the next couple of weeks.
State of play: A 51-year-old progressive who hails from the Rio Grande Valley, Hinojosa will likely make the case that she could reverse a recent rightward shift among Texas Latinos.
- Traditionally a key Democratic constituency, Texas Latinos' allegiances are increasingly up for grabs. That shift has further imperiled the relevance of a party already in the political wilderness — the last time a Democrat won statewide was 1994.
- Republicans have made a big bet that Latino loyalties are increasingly in play — their recent congressional redistricting increased the number of majority-Hispanic districts.
- "That's possible because Hispanic voters have become more Republican," SMU political science professor Matthew Wilson told Axios this summer.
Between the lines: Abbott, partnering with national Republicans, has used his political capital and campaign money over the last decade to help build a GOP apparatus along the Texas-Mexico border, once a solid blue area of the state.
- In 2018, when he was facing a Latina Democrat, Lupe Valdez, his campaign advertisements featured his Hispanic mother-in-law, Mary Lucy Phalen, speaking in Spanish about Abbott's character. (Phalen died in 2020.)
Stunning stat: In February 2016, 65% of Texas Latinos identified as Democrats. In December 2024, it was 45%, per polling from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas.
- Exit polls in 2024 found Trump won 55% of the Latino vote in Texas — a 13-point increase from 2020.
💰 Follow the money: Abbott's campaign has a king's ransom available to buy ads and mobilize voters — more than $86 million in cash on hand as of mid-July.
- Hinojosa's campaign, by contrast, had a shade under $25,000 in cash on hand in its mid-July filing.
- Several other Democrats have already said they're running, including Andrew White, a Houston businessman and son of the late Gov. Mark White. He has not yet filed a campaign finance report this election cycle.
- The filing deadline for primary candidates is Dec. 8.
Zoom in: The daughter of legal aid lawyers from Mission, Hinojosa went to high school in Brownsville before heading to Austin to attend the University of Texas — she graduated from the Plan II Honors program and then earned a law degree from George Washington University.
- She was elected to the Austin ISD school board in 2012 and first won her House seat, which covers central Austin, in 2016.
- Her father, Gilberto Hinojosa, was state Democratic Party chair for 12 years, and the family name is well known in the Valley. The largest Spanish land grant in Texas was given to a Franciscan friar named Joaquín de Hinojosa in 1692.
Flashback: Hinojosa and Abbott sparred earlier this year after the Democrat called the governor's school voucher plan a "scam."
- "Can we really trust the former head of the woke Austin school board to give us the facts about our children's education?" Abbott asked in a social media post.
- "Call me a liar to my face," Hinojosa then wrote on X.
Yes, but: She's little known outside Austin — and the general election is just over a year away.
Context: Beto O'Rourke, by contrast, formally announced his U.S. Senate campaign in March 2017 — more than a year and a half ahead of his 2018 Trump midterm showdown with U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, as he tried to introduce himself across a vast state.
- O'Rourke lost by less than 3 percentage points.
The intrigue: Two Democratic groups are launching a six-figure ad campaign against U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Edinburg, part of a larger Democratic effort to stop a rightward Latino shift.
The bottom line: Democrats are hoping Republicans up and down the ballot are vulnerable in the upcoming Trump midterm.
- The latest UT/Texas Politics Project poll showed Abbott's approval rating at 40%, his lowest since he became governor in 2015.
- But bracketing the 2018 Cruz-O'Rourke race, Republicans have been regularly winning statewide races by double (or near-double) digits.