Why Dems would (or wouldn't) pick Talarico for VP in '28
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James Talarico addresses supporters on election night on March 3 in Austin. Photo: John Moore/Getty Images
Texas legislator James Talarico is an underdog for U.S. Senate, but his name is already being whispered as a potential 2028 vice presidential candidate.
Why it matters: The mere suggestion reflects just how stratospheric Talarico's rise has been — and how desperate Democrats are to win Texas' electoral votes.
What they're saying: "If Talarico wins the seat against the Republican nominee, I think he's likely or very likely to be the vice presidential pick in 2028," NYU marketing professor Scott Galloway said on "Pivot," the podcast he co-hosts with journalist Kara Swisher, following Talarico's March primary victory.
- Last year, influential podcaster Joe Rogan suggested the Austin Democrat should aim for the White House.
Flashback: Barack Obama's Senate run in 2004 — including a galvanizing keynote address at the Democratic National Convention that summer — established his national profile ahead of a successful presidential run in 2008.
- Current Vice President Vance had not served two years in the U.S. Senate before Donald Trump named him as his running mate in the 2024 election.
Zoom in: Talarico's campaign declined an Axios request for comment.
- Talarico beat U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) in the Democratic primary in March and his campaign has been hauling in record amounts of cash — with far more in the bank than U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are vying for the GOP nomination in a May 26 runoff.
- The former public school teacher and seminarian is running ahead of both Republicans, according to two polls released last week.
Between the lines: Selecting Talarico as a running mate — should he win in November — would "send a message that whoever was the presidential candidate ... would be reaching out and cares about the electorate that Talarico had resonated with," Joel Goldstein, a scholar of the vice presidency, tells Axios.
- "It's about who's picking and what they see their needs are. He would certainly be in the conversation," Goldstein adds.
Context: Talarico has carved out a new lane in Texas politics: a Christian Democrat who in the primary appealed to Hispanic voters and suburbanites — both key constituencies.
Follow the money: Through his campaign — he raised more in the first quarter of an election year than any U.S. Senate candidate in history —Talarico also has built a donor base around the country, one attractive to any White House run.
The intrigue: A Talarico Senate win would immediately raise the question of whether he could help deliver Texas' 40 electoral votes to Democrats in 2028.
- But Goldstein says "it's sort of a myth in American politics that presidential candidates pick a running mate to win a state with a lot of electoral votes."
- Instead, Goldstein says the selection is often meant to complement or amplify an attribute of the presidential candidate.
- Choosing Texas running mates (U.S. Sens. Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1960; Lloyd Bentsen in 1988) has been a way for northern Democrats to reach into the South as they aim for regional ticket balance.
How it works: If Talarico wins the Senate race and if he's subsequently named to a White House ticket and if that ticket wins — a string of big "ifs" — he would resign his Senate seat before being sworn in as vice president.
- LBJ, for example, resigned his U.S. Senate seat in early January 1961.
- The governor would then be empowered to appoint his successor, who could be of either party.
Reality check: No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994.
- If Talarico does manage to pull off an upset in Texas, national Democrats will be reluctant to give up his seat with a (likely) Republican governor appointing his successor. (Gov. Greg Abbott is running for reelection and has far more campaign funds than his Democratic opponent.)
- "If Talarico can get over that hump, to break the drought, then it's almost certain that would almost immediately generate buzz about what a high ceiling he has," Adam Schiffer, a scholar of American politics at TCU who has examined presidential nomination contests, tells Axios.
- But if he has to resign his seat — and assuming Texas still has a Republican governor, "when push comes to shove in those conversations, that's often a decisive factor — you don't want to mess with a 50-50 Senate or one that's 51-49. You don't want to shake that up with other viable (running mate) options available, which there will be," Schiffer says.