Talarico leads Cornyn and Paxton in UT poll

State of play: Talarico will face either U.S. Sen. John Cornyn or Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are vying for the GOP nomination in a May 26 runoff.

By the numbers: In hypothetical matchups, Talarico led Cornyn 40% to 33% among 1,200 registered voters in the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, and he held a 42% to 34% lead over Paxton. The margin of error was +/- 3.35% for the weighted sample.

• The survey was conducted April 10-20.

Between the lines: Nearly 1 in 5 Texas voters (19%) said they had no opinion about the race yet.

Context: The poll comes a day after another nonpartisan poll found Talarico leading his Republican rivals by closer margins.

What they're saying: Republicans remain divided on who they want to represent them in the race — but they still have plenty of time to get behind a single candidate by November, Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project, tells Axios.

• "We are asking voters in April about their potential voting preferences in this hypothetical matchup while an incredibly heated and long-running primary is going on," he says.
• In other statewide races in the poll, Republicans lead. For example, Gov. Greg Abbott polled ahead of state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) 44% to 38% in the governor's race.

Methodology: The sample was weighted to closely match the state's demographics and past voting behavior.

Reality check: No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994.

• But Talarico has been raising record amounts of money, and President Trump's low approval ratings have been a drag on Republican candidates around the country.
• The new Texas poll showed opposition to the war in Iran and deepening concerns about inflation and the economy.

The intrigue: At an event at the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation this month, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick forecast problems for Republicans if the party couldn't unite behind its Senate nominee.

• "John Cornyn, if you lose, you need to endorse Ken Paxton and get your voters to support Ken Paxton," he said.
• "And Ken Paxton, if you lose, you need to endorse John Cornyn and get your voters to support John Cornyn. Because if 10-15% of either of their sides don't turn out and vote, James Talarico is going to win."

The bottom line: "It's likely to be a pretty favorable electoral environment for Democrats should things stay on the trajectory they're on now," Henson says.