Georgia Democrats see path to flipping the state House
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Georgia Democrats say they have a fighting chance of breaking Republicans' two-decade grip on unified state government in the November midterms.
Why it matters: Gaining control of the chamber would fundamentally change how laws are passed and policies are created in Georgia and would give Democrats greater power on budgeting and important legislation.
- Democrats would force Republicans to share legislative power during redistricting efforts, preventing GOP-drawn maps from unilaterally moving through the Legislature.
State of play: Midterm voters tend to use the polls to punish the national party in power, and Republicans are navigating a difficult national environment marked by Trump's low approval ratings and voter frustration over affordability.
Zoom in: House Democrats' path to netting the 10 seats they need for a majority in the 180-member House starts in four Republican-controlled districts, according to a Fair Fight memo based on polling by Democratic firm Z to A Research.
- Voters in House Districts 48, 53, 99 and 105 voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election but not for the Democratic candidate in those legislative races, the report says.
- Their path starts with those four seats, finding a net six more gains among a wider group of contested districts, and protecting vulnerable Democratic seats.
Catch up quick: Republicans took control of the House in 2004, completing unified GOP control of state government.
- However, the House majority has slowly eroded thanks to Democratic gains, particularly in the metro Atlanta suburbs.
- In 2018, an energized electorate helped Democrats pick up 11 seats. Since then, they've gradually chipped away at the GOP's majority with one or two seats in subsequent elections, according to the Democratic groups' analysis.
Zoom out: Should Keisha Lance Bottoms win her competitive governor's race against Republican Rick Jackson, Democratic control of the House could give her additional leverage to advance her priorities and prevent Republican-backed measures from reaching her desk.
Yes, but: Carmen Bergman, the Georgia House Republican Caucus director, told Georgia Recorder that the party plans to expand its majority.
- Earlier this year, the University of Virginia's Center for Politics considered both chambers to be "likely Republican," Georgia Recorder notes.
What's next: Oct. 5 is the last day to register to vote in the 2026 midterms. Advance voting runs from Oct. 13-30.