Axios

Oscar owes its existence to the Affordable Care Act's disruption of the health care market. A new feature from Backchannel shows how the fledgling startup is facing the law's imminent repeal.

The company's leaders say they'll survive because they have:

• Flexibility to evolve faster in a changing market than more established competitors
• Moved into the small business market, covering firms that offer insurance options to employees
• Better user experiences (think: going to an Apple Store for your doctor's appointment)

Cofounder Josh Kushner, the brother of Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, sums it up:

"It's like we're this beautiful spaceship that was able to be built because there was some new space program — but we launched in an unstable environment. But we can quickly redirect this beautiful spaceship to very stable environments."

Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia tops most Republicans' lists of gettable Democrats, but not on Obamacare. In a conversation with Vice President-elect Mike Pence on Wednesday, Manchin says he told Pence he's not about to vote for repeal without negotiating a replacement first. "I told him it was the wrong approach," Manchin told reporters at the Capitol on Thursday.

Why it matters: Manchin made a point of not attending President Obama's meeting with congressional Democrats on Wednesday, insisting that there should be a bipartisan solution to Obamacare. So if he's not on board, Republicans have a tough road ahead.

Yes, but: Manchin says Pence promised to try to help him solve a different health care issue close to his heart: a pension and health fund for retired coal miners that's in danger of default.

Rep. Chris Collins — a member of Donald Trump's transition team — told MSNBC Thursday that there will be no policy changes to Obamacare until 2019, and signaled that insurers will be under the same Obamacare rules for the next two years.

Between the lines: Collins' message might ease some fears among Obamacare customers. But it's also aimed at insurers, who have been telling the Trump team and Congress that they need to know the rules of the road so they can decide whether to even offer Obamacare coverage next year.

Democrats in Congress spent most of Wednesday quoting an op-ed Sen. Rand Paul wrote for Rare.

The former presidential candidate and former most interesting man in politics wrote that if Republicans don't replace the law at the same time that they repeal it, "the repealers risk assuming the blame for the continued unraveling of Obamacare."

Why it matters: Paul may not have the kind of megaphone he used to have, but he might encourage other Republicans, and not just the establishment types, to think about the practical dangers of repeal and delay.

You will see an acceleration of adverse selection and ultimately mass bankruptcy of the healthcare insurance industry. - Rand Paul

He warned that crisis that "may eventually lead to calls for a taxpayer bailout of insurance companies."

What's next: Don't forget that Obamacare is popular in Kentucky, and even Trump voters don't necessarily want it to go away. Watch Mitch McConnell's next moves very closely.