Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Earth's average global temperature will likely warm anywhere from 4.1°F to 8.1°F (or 2.3°C to 4.5°C) if deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels continue at the current rate, the Washington Post reports, citing a major new study.

Why it matters: The best-case scenario of this estimate exceeds the previous minimum range first established in a 1979 report, which expected the planet to warm between 2.7°F and 8.1°F (1.5°C to 4.5°C) if the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were to double. The world is on track to hit that milestone within roughly the next 50 years, according the Post.

The big picture: 25 researchers in a four-year study — published in the Reviews of Geophysics journal Wednesday — found a 95% chance that doubling the amount of atmospheric CO2 would have dangerous ramifications, including intolerable heat waves and "disruptive" sea-level rise, according to the Post.

Details: The researchers used data from instrument records, paleoclimate records from ice cores and coral reefs that helped gauge prehistoric temperatures, and satellite observations to reach their findings, the Post's Andrew Freedman and Chris Mooney report.

The bottom line: It now appears "extremely unlikely" that Earth's global climate sensitivity "could be low enough to avoid substantial climate change" if carbon emissions continue unabated, according to the researchers.

Go deeper: 10 ways coronavirus is changing energy and climate change

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What Kamala Harris means for Biden's climate change plans

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Joshua Lott/Stringer.

Sen. Kamala Harris' VP selection could heighten the ticket's focus on environmental justice while prompting fresh Trump campaign political attacks on Democrats' energy plans.

Why it matters: Her introduction comes in an election year that has seen more emphasis on climate change than prior cycles. One effect of the movement ignited by the police killing of George Floyd is a new focus on environmental burdens that poor people and communities of color face.

Updated 5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET: 20,755,406 — Total deaths: 752,225— Total recoveries: 12,917,934Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET: 5,246,760 — Total deaths: 167,052 — Total recoveries: 1,774,648 — Total tests: 64,831,306Map.
  3. Politics: House Democrats to investigate scientist leading "Operation Warp Speed" vaccine projectMcConnell announces Senate will not hold votes until Sept. 8 unless stimulus deal is reached.
  4. 2020: Biden calls for 3-month national mask mandateBiden and Harris to receive coronavirus briefings 4 times a week.
  5. States: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to drop lawsuit over Atlanta's mask mandate.
  6. Business: Why the CARES Act makes 2020 the best year for companies to lose money.
  7. Public health: Fauci's guidance on pre-vaccine coronavirus treatments Cases are falling, but don't get too comfortable.

Trump says he intends to give RNC speech on White House lawn

President Trump speaking to reporters on South Lawn in July. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

President Trump told the New York Post on Thursday that he plans to deliver his Republican National Convention speech from the White House lawn, despite bipartisan criticism of the optics and legality of the location.

Why it matters: Previous presidents avoided blurring staged campaign-style events — like party conventions — with official business of governing on the White House premises, per Politico.