National

Axios Communicators

Percentage change in media and communications job postings on Indeed since Feb. 1, 2020

Data: Indeed; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

No role is totally safe in a strained economy, but it seems like the communications field is healthy, all things considered. 

Why it matters: Employment in media and communications is projected to grow faster than the average for all other occupations — an estimated 14% — over the next 10 years, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

State of play: Executives continue to lean on communicators for strategic guidance on subjects like return-to-work, rapid response to social issues and internal transformations.

In-house and agency communicators thrive in uncertain times, says Pepper Binner, president and founder of PLBSearch, an executive search firm that specializes in filling communication roles.

Plus, “compensation has definitely risen in reaction to the strong demand for communications talent.” 

Yes, but: Job postings for media and communication roles are currently 42% higher than they were pre-pandemic, but down from their peak of 64% in May, according to an Indeed Hiring Lab spokesperson. 

Communications, media jobs projected to grow over next decade

Employment in communications is projected to grow faster than the average for all other fields over the next 10 years.

Communications

Jobs

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Roughly four out of five Americans are worried about job security, per an Insights Global study, and there could be more layoffs as companies grapple with economic uncertainty. 

Why it matters: There’s no easy way to communicate layoffs or rescind offers, but there is a wrong way — like mass Zoom firings, harsh tweets or leaked memos to the press. 

Yes, but: Some companies have approached it with civility.

Flashback: In a 2020 internal note — which CEO Brian Chesky wrote himself — Airbnb announced it was laying off 25% of its employees. And this week, Shopify CEO Tobias Lütke sent out a similar note about a 10% workforce reduction. 

In my opinion, these communications have the right balance of information and heart.  

Explained why. It sounds simple, but many companies fail to include a specific reason for layoffs.

The pandemic forced Airbnb to go “back to the basics” and pause new initiatives, while Shopify grew too quickly to keep up with e-commerce spending — brought on by the pandemic — that has since slowed. 

Focused on benefits. Chesky and Lütke publicly shared available benefits — like severance and health care coverage extension — to show they care for those impacted. 

Discussed what’s next. Airbnb leadership was clear about what to expect and dedicated 1:1 communication for those being let go. Chesky also hosted a CEO Q&A after all terminated employees were notified.

Took ownership. Both notes included words of thanks, but most importantly, the executives took accountability and offered sincere apologies. 

What they're saying: Johnny C. Taylor Jr., president and CEO of the Society for Human Resource Management says to communicate with empathy and follow these tactics: 

Set up 1:1 meetings. Even if layoffs are announced in mass internal notes, 1:1 meetings with a manager or HR representative are a must. 

Have a script. Equip your managers with talking points and the correct information regarding timing, benefits and outplacement services. 

Answer questions. “Allow proper time, attention and room for questions — and if you get a question you don’t know the answer to, do not guess,” Taylor said. Instead, say you’ll get the answer and respond within a specific timeframe. 

Monitor your tone. It’s not what you say, but how you say it. “Increasingly, separation conversations are being recorded,” warns Taylor, so stick to the script but speak with compassion and sincerity.

Keep records. Whether it’s follow-up questions, phone calls or outplacement conversations, make sure to track it. 

The bottom line: Letting go of employees is one of the hardest things managers will have to do, but it is possible to deliver this news in a clear, accountable and dignified way.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to include the accurate name of the Society for Human Resource Management. 

How companies should communicate layoffs

There’s no easy way to communicate layoffs or rescind offers, but there is a wrong way.

Illustration of a pink slip shaped like a broken heart. 

Year-over-year change in U.S. workers' real earnings

Data: Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

Most people who switched employers between April 2021 and March 2022 saw an increase in their real earnings — despite surging inflation, according to a new Pew Research Center report.

Why it matters: Amid proof that the "great resignation" is paying off, people continue to hunt for new jobs in record numbers, though they're growing more concerned that the tight labor market may be changing, a Pew survey shows.

22% of U.S. adults say they are "very" or "somewhat" likely to look for a new job in the next six months, Pew found in a poll of 6,174 people conducted from June 27 to July 4.

But 37% say they think finding a new job will be "very" or "somewhat" difficult.

"Despite reports of hiring and so on, there seems to be more worry," Rakesh Kochhar, a Pew senior researcher, tells Axios.

Driving the news: 60% of people saw an increase in real earnings after they switched employers, compared with 47% of those who remained in the same job, Pew found.

The median worker who found a new job enjoyed a 9.7% bump in inflation-adjusted earnings, compared to a -1.7% dip for those who stayed put.

The recent trend was quite different from the previous year: From April 2020 to March 2021, 51% of job-switchers saw a real earnings income boost, versus 54% of people who stayed put.

"Put another way, the median worker who changed employers saw real gains in earnings in both periods, while the median worker who stayed in place saw a loss during the April 2021 to March 2022 period," Pew said.

Low pay was the top reason people say they quit their jobs in 2021, according to a Pew survey conducted in February.

The higher income that some people reported "happened despite a surge in the rate of inflation that has eroded real earnings for many others," Pew noted.

By the numbers: In the first quarter of this year, 4 million workers a month changed jobs, for an overall rate of 2.5% — compared with 2.3% in the same period last year, Pew said.

Between the lines: While the "great resignation" is sometimes viewed as a product of white-collar burnout, the Pew research found otherwise: Workers with a bachelor's degree or higher switched jobs at a rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of this year, about the same as in 2019.

The rate was 3.5% for workers without a high school diploma, compared with 2.8% in 2019.

Young adults 16 to 24 were the age group most likely to change employers in an average month: 4.4% in 2022 versus 4.1% in 2019.

Black and Hispanic workers were more likely to switch employers than white and Asian employees.

Methodology: The Pew report's findings are based on a survey of 6,174 U.S. adults conducted from June 27 to July 4 and an analysis of U.S. government data.

People with new jobs are making way more money

60% of job-switchers are making more money, even with inflation

IMF slashes forecasts for global economy in "gloomy" outlook

"The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one,”  an IMF economist said.

Photo: Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

Economy

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

Sky-high freight rates are falling, pinching truckers' income. And that tells an important story about what's going on in the economy overall.

Why it matters: Nearly every good consumed in the U.S. is put on a truck at some point. Right now, there are hints of a slowdown in demand.

Meanwhile, supply has been stabilizing as a flood of new truckers entered the industry to cash in on the ultra-lucrative boom that sent paychecks soaring.

Between the lines: Much like the debate around the broader economy, freight-watchers largely fall into two camps.

Some say the industry is simply coming into balance after two years of unsustainable activity.

Others say the sector is rolling over, and a "freight recession" — with harsh consequences for some truckers — is imminent.

What's going on: One signal lies in the "spot market," a live indicator of what it costs to book ad hoc capacity on a truck. (Larger firms tend to use contract rates — they take cues from the spot rates, but with a lag — where prices are negotiated farther in advance.)

Excluding fuel, spot rates have plummeted by a sharp 30%, but remain above pre-pandemic levels, according to Freight Waves. "To see prices deteriorate by one-third in three months is pretty dire," says the site's CEO Craig Fuller. 

Prices go up when the market is tight, with high demand for goods and limited trucking capacity to move them. But prices fall when the opposite happens: Demand slows with more trucking supply.

Analysts say steeper rate drops will be explained by a further slowdown on the demand side as consumers back off on spending on goods, hints of which we've seen in retail sales and factory surveys. 

The drop-off in freight rates may be a good sign for inflation (though fuel prices remain high). The slump could cause a shakeout in smaller truck operators facing a collapse in revenue.

"High fuel costs have been running in their face, prices have been falling, and they have a high cost of operation. That's not a good combination for staying in business," says Jason Seidl, a freight analyst at Cowen. 

What they're saying: "We had a freight recession in 2019 and 2015. Did that mean that people were losing jobs at an alarming rate, companies were going bankrupt left and right? Not necessarily," says Stifel analyst Bruce Chan.

The bottom line: In earnings calls this week, the country's biggest trucking firms confirmed that the pandemic-era gravy train has slowed.  Yet none pointed to a catastrophic slowdown. 

"There's little pockets of softness that really weren't anticipated," LandStar CEO James Gattoni told analysts. 

What trucking tells us about the economy

Trucking rates have dropped sharply, though they remain above pre-pandemic levels.

Illustration of a delivery truck with a dollar bill on the side

Transportation

Stock market

Retail sales — a barometer for consumer spending — bounced back last month, rising 1% as inflation soared to a new four-decade high, the Commerce Department said on Friday. 

Why it matters: Economists are watching these figures closely to see how the consumer — a consistent bright spot in an economy that's feared to be slowing — is faring. The numbers, which aren't adjusted for inflation, are a sign consumer demand is holding up. 

Details: Retail sales in May were slightly better than first thought, too: the revision shows sales fell 0.1%, rather than the 0.3% decline initially estimated.

Stripping out spending on autos and gasoline — where costs are soaring — retail sales rose 0.7% in June.

The bottom line: Fed officials are looking at economic data between now and their next policy meeting later this month for signs that demand is slowing as it takes aggressive steps to bring inflation down. 

Retail sales rebounded in June as inflation soared

Retail sales, which aren't adjusted for inflation, rose 1%.

Photo: Liao Pan/China News Service via Getty Images

Retail

Data: U.S. Department of Labor; Chart: Axios Visuals

Inflation soared to a fresh four-decade high in June, as prices rose 9.1% from last year — 1.3% from the prior month — the government said on Wednesday.

Why it matters: The price shock is tanking Americans' view of the economy —  and risks pushing the Federal Reserve into moving aggressively to cool inflation, possibly triggering a recession.

The big picture: The Consumer Price Index only covers June, so the recent drop in commodity prices isn't reflected in the report.

Stripping out those volatile food and energy costs, prices jumped 0.7%, a tick higher than the prior month.

This so-called "core" index is 5.9% higher than a year ago.

Details: The largest contributors to inflation were shelter, used cars and trucks, new cars and motor vehicle insurance.

The backdrop: The Fed has undertaken the most aggressive interest rate hike campaign in decades to chill the economy, which in effect, should slow price growth. Officials say the moves won't necessarily tip the economy into a recession — but they admit it's a possibility.

They also note there are factors out of its control that may complicate its plan, namely Russia's invasion of Ukraine and supply chain snarls — both of which have limited supply of key goods, fueling the supply-demand mismatch that's pushed up prices.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is searching for ways to soothe voters' discontent as inflation cuts into wage gains and weighs on Americans' wallets. Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low.

What they're saying: "While today's headline inflation reading is unacceptably high, it is also out-of-date," President Biden said in a statement.

"Today's data does not reflect the full impact of nearly 30 days of decreases in gas prices, that have reduced the price at the pump by about 40 cents since mid-June," he added.

The bottom line: Inflation is rising at the fastest rate since 1981.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with a statement from Biden.

Scorching inflation hits 9.1%, highest since 1981

Scorching inflation is at a 40-year high

The price shock is tanking Americans' view of the economy.

Inflation

A Valero gas station in Hoboken, N.J., in June. Average gas prices have since fallen from last month's peak.

Joe Biden

Policymaking

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Axios Sneak Peek

White House officials are preparing the country for a hot inflation rate ahead of the release of Wednesday's Consumer Price Index, but they insist that some key inflation components — including gas prices — are coming down. 

Driving the news: Independent economists estimate that annual headline inflation will increase to 8.8% for June — up from 8.6% in May — when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its CPI report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. 

While Biden officials were careful not to predict that June’s CPI print would be the high-water mark for inflation, they noted that average gas prices have been declining since mid-June.  

"Energy prices have fallen significantly from the prices included in the June CPI report," Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, and Cecilia Rouse, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, wrote in a memo for public release. 

"The June CPI data will largely not reflect the substantial declines in gas prices we’ve seen since the middle of June."

Flashback: In January, when December's CPI reading came in at 7%, Biden claimed that the monthly increase was slowing.  

"Today’s report — which shows a meaningful reduction in headline inflation over last month, with gas prices and food prices falling — demonstrates that we are making progress in slowing the rate of price increases," he said. 

Then Russia invaded Ukraine, sending energy and food prices higher. 

Why it matters: The White House wants to put the coming numbers into context and attempt to minimize their potential political impact. 

Republicans — as well as Democratic economists — have blamed Biden's spending and regulatory polices for driving prices higher. 

Biden officials reject any argument that last year's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill overheated the economy and contributed to inflation. 

They point to higher prices across the globe, which they say are driven by the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic. 

"Inflation remains elevated throughout the world, with inflation at 7.7% in Canada, 8.6% in the Euro zone, and 9.1% in the United Kingdom," Deese and Rouse write in the memo. 

Between the lines: Gas prices for Americans have recently declined. 

"Retail gas prices per gallon peaked at $5.02 on June 13 and averaged $4.92 across the month," Deese and Rouse write. "Gas prices are now down to around $4.68."

The big picture: Higher prices have contributed to the erosion of President Biden’s support and represent a major challenge for Democrats ahead of the midterm elections.. 

Biden and his top economic officials spent most of 2021 arguing the inflation would be temporary. 

In May, Biden declared that taming inflation was his "top priority." 

Go deeper: In response to higher oil prices, the administration has participated in the coordinated global release of strategic petroleum reserves. 

Biden has hammered the oil and gas industry and warned them not to gouge consumer, and also called on Congress to suspend the 18 cents-per-gallon federal gasoline tax.

What we're watching: Biden leaves for the Middle East Tuesday night for a trip that will include a summit in Saudi Arabia, where increasing the global supply of oil will be atop the agenda. 

White House warns CPI inflation number will be elevated

Annual headline inflation is forecast to increase to 8.8% for June, up from 8.6%.

Brian Deese in a red tie and blue suit stands and smiles at the White House lectern

Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council, at a White House press briefing. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Biden administration

Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals

The U.S. economy added 372,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate held at 3.6%, close to the lowest level in a half-century, the government said on Friday.

Why it matters: Jobs growth remains healthy, even as the Federal Reserve tries to slam the brakes on the economy to contain decades-high inflation.

Forecasts called for 270,000 payrolls to have been added in June.

By the numbers: Job gains in April and May were 74,000 lower than initially estimated.

The labor force participation rate — the share of the population employed or looking for a job — ticked down slightly to 62.2%.

Wages grew 5.1% from the prior year, compared to 5.2% in May.

The backdrop: There has been a spate of companies announcing layoffs, rescinding job offers and pausing hiring, though these developments have largely been concentrated in sectors like housing and technology.

The Fed, meanwhile, delivered its biggest interest rate hike since 1994 last month — the latest move in its aggressive bid to chill the economy and the labor market to choke off inflation.

U.S. adds 372,000 jobs as labor market stays robust

Forecasts called for 270,000 payrolls to have been added.

People walk by a "we're hiring" sign for a Jimmy Jo

Michigan is now the second state after Maine where 17-year-olds can serve alcohol.   

Why it matters: States are taking drastic measures to fill the gaping holes in the labor market, including turning to teenagers, boosting pay and creating incentives to lure employees into the workforce amid a chronic shortage. 

Zoom in: The New Jersey bill signed by Gov. Phil Murphy this week allows 16- and 17-year olds to work up to 50 hours a week, or 10 hours a day, during the summer months, while 14- and 15-year-olds can work up to 40 hours a week.

Plus, the law simplifies the process to get working papers — provisions that will go into effect next summer, according to NJ.com. 

"[The law will] help employers find more workers, allow teens more work hours and more pay, and help New Jersey residents and visitors avoid longer summer waits," Michele Siekerk, president of the New Jersey Business and Industry Association, told NJ.com.

In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) signed a bill earlier this month allowing 17-year-olds to serve alcohol at bars and restaurants to ease shortages in the hospitality industry, MLive reports.

"I know our businesses in northern Michigan and other tourist areas will benefit tremendously from the signing of this bill," Michigan Licensed Beverage Association executive director Scott Ellis said. 

In Louisville, Kentucky, Norton Healthcare is boosting tuition assistance for students seeking degrees in registered nursing, respiratory therapy or laboratory sciences to alleviate the health care shortage. 

Lawmakers are also boosting pay for city workers, including in Washington, D.C., where new police officers are being given a $20,000 hiring bonus, aimed at helping "MPD recruit and hire more officers," Mayor Muriel Bowser said. 

To address the lifeguard shortage, New York City Mayor Eric Adams recently lifted a decades-old rule preventing some city employees from also working as lifeguards, The City reports.

Now, city employees, including first responders, can also work as a lifeguard during their off-hours. 

State of play: The pandemic exposed the cracks in the labor market, leading to a shortage of workers, creating supply chain bottlenecks and surging child care costs, Axios' Emily Peck reports.

The bottom line: The job market may be cooling, with job vacancies falling and hiring steady, but states are trying to help desperate businesses fill open positions — especially as summer travel surges. 

Go deeper... Teens juice the summer recovery

States get creative to ease labor shortage

In Michigan, 17-year-olds are legally allowed to serve alcohol.

Illustration of a hand marking a grid full of people icons

Labor

The next U.S. jobs report could be a big market-moving event.

Why it matters: The Fed wants to know if the U.S. labor market has made “substantial further progress,” the vague threshold that would give the FOMC the confidence to dial back some of its emergency bond purchase program.

By the numbers: According to FactSet, economists estimate U.S. employers added 756,500 jobs in August, which would be a slowdown from the 943,000 added in July.

The unemployment rate is estimated to have fallen to 5.2% in August from 5.4% the month prior.

What they’re saying: “The softening in employment activity would be consistent with other economic data that have weakened since the surge in COVID case counts due to the Delta variant,” Bank of America U.S. economist Joseph Song says.

“Related to that,” Wells Fargo economists write, “the FOMC is likely to again consider deteriorating public health conditions as a detriment to ‘substantial further progress,’ which removes some heft from the August employment report when it comes to determining the timing of potential tapering.”

In other words, assuming job growth did decelerate significantly in August, then the FOMC may wait until after its Sept. 22 meeting to announce the timing of tapering.

What to watch: The August U.S. jobs report will be released at 8:30am ET on Friday.

Go deeper: The harm the Fed wants to avoid by tapering too early

What economists expect from the August jobs report

The Fed wants to know if the U.S. labor market has made “substantial further progress.”

A man walks by a "Now Hiring" sign outside a store in Arlington, Va.

A man walks by a "Now Hiring" sign outside a store in Arlington, Va. Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Jobs report

Axios Future

A survey of C-suite executives found more than a quarter are considering moving their operations to another state or country.

Why it matters: The forced march to remote work during the pandemic has shaken loose the bonds that tie large businesses to their home territory — and that could be bad news for high-cost cities and states.

New survey shows companies are open to moving to cheaper locales

Remote work — accelerated by the pandemic — has made it easier for companies to seek out less expensive regions

Sections

Axios Local

Axios gets you smarter, faster with news & information that matters.

About

Subscribe

Jobs

The big picture

What economists expect from the August jobs report

New survey shows companies are open to moving to cheaper locales

How the pandemic will reshape the job market

Coronavirus could upend traditional workweeks

What offices might look like as America returns to work

A reckoning for small business

All Jobs stories