National

If President Trump walks away from the Iran nuclear deal, after again calling on Congress to unilaterally "correct" it during his State of the Union address, it would be the third major international agreement he has ditched.

With Europe, Russia, China and Iran unwilling to renegotiate, such a move would set the stage for withdrawal. But unlike the Trans Pacific Partnership and Paris Climate Agreement, where other parties moved on without the U.S., blowing up the Iran deal would have serious repercussions.

Nuclear sanctions “snap back,” setting up no-win trade disputes with countries and companies that continue to do business in Iran. Iran would then not only continue to test missiles and pursue its interests in places like Syria, but also resume the very nuclear activity the agreement actually stopped.

But none of this is necessary, since Trump’s Iran policy is working. 

Even with the nuclear deal intact, the Trump administration has imposed additional sanctions against entities linked to Iran’s missile program and support of terrorist organizations. 

The recent public protests across Iran over its dismal economic outlook and ensuing crackdown provide the administration a significant opportunity to discourage further international investment in Iran, potentially widening the wedge between the Iranian government and its people the protests revealed. 

Blowing up the nuclear deal is a lose-lose-lose proposition. It undermines the U.S. relationship with key allies and makes Russia and China appear to be the more responsible international actors. And it gives the Ayatollah a gift-wrapped opportunity to point to yet another American conspiracy and shift the blame for Iran's troubles to the Great Satan.

The bottom line: In Trump’s world, when policy and politics collide, politics prevails. Regardless of the global consequences, Trump may well terminate the Iran deal just because he said he would. He sees this as clarity. To the rest of the world, it's more chaos.

P.J. Crowley is a former Assistant Secretary of State and author of "Red Line: American Foreign Policy in a Time of Fractured Politics and Failing States."

Trump's Iran deal "fix" will derail a policy that's working

Walking away would undermine the U.S.'s international standing and leverage with Iran.

Ayatollah Khameini speaking while seated on stage

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei speaks in Tehran in October 2017. Photo: Iranian Leader's Press Office - Handout / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images

Politics

Expert voices

Expert Voices

World

If President Trump walks away from the Iran nuclear deal, after again calling on Congress to unilaterally &quot;correct&quot; it during his State of the Union address, it would be the third major international agreement he has ditched.With Europe, Russia, China and Iran unwilling to renegotiate, such a move would set the stage for withdrawal. But unlike the Trans Pacific Partnership and Paris Climate Agreement, where other parties moved on without the U.S., blowing up the Iran deal would have serious repercussions.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

News that President Donald Trump will sit down with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the next three months is a stunning development. There is considerable risk associated with this dramatic gambit. Contrary to the normal diplomatic playbook, which calls for leaders to meet after experts have worked through complex details, this meeting will in essence kickstart negotiations.

What's next: If Kim is willing to bargain away his nuclear and missile capabilities — a big if — the biggest hurdle to an agreement will be less what North Koreans demand than what American politics allows.

The United States should require North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons program, rejoin the Nonproliferation Treaty and agree to the Additional Protocol (which allows for more intrusive inspections), cease the long-range missile development that threatens the U.S. mainland and stop its cyber attacks on U.S. entities. Japan will demand a full accounting of its citizens who were kidnapped during the Cold War.

North Korea will likely seek a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War, the resumption of normal diplomatic relations, a scaling back of the U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula and a public pledge that Washington does not seek regime change. It will demand an end to international sanctions and could seek a major commitment of economic assistance.

What rights would Pyongyang retain to develop civilian nuclear energy and export conventional military hardware? This question recalls ground the Obama administration plowed with Iran, despite a lack of trust on both sides. And what about North Korea's abysmal human rights record? That has not been a priority for Trump, but claims of “appeasement” have a potent history in American politics.

Trump agreed to the meeting because it is a historic first. But a plausible agreement will look a lot like the Iran deal, which Trump famously derided as "the worst ever." He will be hard-pressed to explain why Pyongyang is suddenly trustworthy while Tehran is not.

The biggest hurdle to a North Korean nuclear deal: American politics

The most plausible agreement is likely to resemble the Iran deal Trump loathes.

President Trump in the Oval Office. Photo: Mandel Ngan / AFP / Getty Images

North Korea

News that President Donald Trump will sit down with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the next three months is a stunning development. There is considerable risk associated with this dramatic gambit. Contrary to the normal diplomatic playbook, which calls for leaders to meet after experts have worked through complex details, this meeting will in essence kickstart negotiations.What&#x27;s next: If Kim is willing to bargain away his nuclear and missile capabilities — a big if — the biggest hurdle to an agreement will be less what North Koreans demand than what American politics allows.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

The Trump administration may be trying to exert “maximum pressure” on Kim Jong-un, but it doesn’t appear that North Korea’s young leader is feeling it.

Throughout 2018, Kim has been on the diplomatic offensive — reestablishing a high-level dialogue with South Korea, creating a shining moment at the Olympics, extending the invitation for an unprecedented meeting with President Trump and just this week meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, on his first foreign trip after six years in office.

Why it matters: Kim has turned the U.S. strategy of political and economic isolation on its head. Thanks to his triple play — summits with Xi, Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in — Kim has taken control of the process and increased his bargaining power.

While Trump was drawn to the historic nature of the proposed talks — no sitting U.S. president has ever met with a North Korean leader — these recent developments have to disconcert his national security team, especially his incoming national security advisor, John Bolton.

Bolton's appointment is a strong indicator Trump will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal — Bolton favors military action — but that move would undermine U.S. credibility with North Korea. He may further compromise those talks by advising that Kim commit upfront to complete and verifiable denuclearization.

Kim will welcome negotiations — the engagement is a win for him — but will not surrender his nuclear and missile capability easily, if at all. What he gives up will depend on how much the U.S., China and South Korea pony up.

The bottom line: Trump is left with unattractive options: Negotiate under terms his hardline national security team opposes, or confront North Korea without backing from the international community. This is why starting the process at the presidential level was a bad idea.

Kim's diplomatic offensive upends U.S. policy

Far from being isolated, Kim has arranged meetings with Presidents Xi, Moon and Trump.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Photo: AFP / KCNA via KNS

After "fire and fury," more strategic patience with North Korea

Deterrence and sanctions remain the best course of action.

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the PyeongChang Winter Olympics opening ceremony. Photo: Carl Court / Getty Images

While stopped in Tokyo en route to the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, Vice President Mike Pence signaled that the Trump administration plans to impose more sanctions on North Korea, further isolating Kim Jong-un’s regime “until it abandons its nuclear and ballistic missile programs once and for all.”Why it matters: Last year in South Korea, Pence said, “The era of strategic patience is over.” But anyone who has worked on North Korea understands one thing: Patience is essential. Notwithstanding the president’s talk of “fire and fury,” strategic patience is his current policy. The vice president’s latest pronouncements say as much.

Notwithstanding Pyeongchang’s proximity to the North Korean border, a mere 40 miles, the Winter Olympics concluded without incident. That in itself is no small achievement.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in earned a diplomatic gold medal by enticing Pyongyang to join the festivities rather than disrupt them. North and South Korean athletes carried the torch in the opening ceremonies. The North Korean cheerleaders retained their enthusiasm even as the joint women’s hockey team lost every game. And North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, sent a high-level delegation that included his sister.

What’s next: There may be a meeting between the North and South leaders, which wouldn't hurt. But after two weeks of sprints, jumps and triple axels, relations between Washington and Pyongyang haven't changed much.

Even though Kim's sister sat within a ski pole’s distance of Vice President Mike Pence, and later Ivanka Trump, during the opening and closing ceremonies respectively, there was no high-level contact. There may have been talks about talks, but none actually occurred.

As the Olympics wound down, the Trump administration returned to its status quo ante — more sanctions. North Korea again signaled its willingness to negotiate with the United States, although undoubtedly with a different agenda in mind.

An Olympics-inspired breakthrough is unlikely. What we just experienced was a kind of diplomatic biathlon — enormous effort, shots that hit and missed the intended targets, and a photo finish. But the race ended a very short distance from where it began.

Olympics end with North Korean diplomacy stuck at the starting line

Missed opportunities make a near-term breakthrough unlikely.

Ivanka Trump, Moon Jae-in and Kim Jung-sook

South Korean President Moon Jae-in with his wife, Kim Jung-sook, and Ivanka Trump at the closing ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang. Photo: Sergei Bobylev / TASS via Getty Images

Notwithstanding Pyeongchang’s proximity to the North Korean border, a mere 40 miles, the Winter Olympics concluded without incident. That in itself is no small achievement.South Korean President Moon Jae-in earned a diplomatic gold medal by enticing Pyongyang to join the festivities rather than disrupt them. North and South Korean athletes carried the torch in the opening ceremonies. The North Korean cheerleaders retained their enthusiasm even as the joint women’s hockey team lost every game. And North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, sent a high-level delegation that included his sister.What’s next: There may be a meeting between the North and South leaders, which wouldn&#x27;t hurt. But after two weeks of sprints, jumps and triple axels, relations between Washington and Pyongyang haven&#x27;t changed much.

Shifts in technology and media are changing the way we play, watch and understand sports. Business models are adapting and social change is forcing those in charge of teams and leagues to reconsider decades-old practices.

P.J. Crowley

Stories

Kim's diplomatic offensive upends U.S. policy

The biggest hurdle to a North Korean nuclear deal: American politics

Olympics end with North Korean diplomacy stuck at the starting line

After "fire and fury," more strategic patience with North Korea

Trump's Iran deal "fix" will derail a policy that's working