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 Turkey is slated to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on June 24. The current leadership has moved the vote forward by 16 months in the hopes of avoiding fallout from a badly deteriorating economy.

Why it matters: For Erdoğan, the combined elections are a matter of political survival after more than 15 years in power. For the opposition, they represent the first serious opportunity to send the incumbent president into retirement. For the citizens of Turkey, this boils down to a choice between a one-man-rule system with no checks and balances and a possible return to a more liberal and parliamentary system of governance.

Turkey’s dual elections on Sunday are deeply flawed: 

The country’s ongoing state of emergency favors the current leadership.

The new election law is less fraud-proof.

On-air reporting is massively unfair, to the benefit of the incumbent president.

Kurdish presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtaş — who is running his campaign from jail — has been threatened with capital punishment by President Erdoğan himself.

An Erdoğan victory would mean more Turkish hostility toward Western powers. The U.S. would face a host of grievances, including the F35 delivery schedule, the use of the İncirlik Air Base and support to Syrian Kurds. Turkey, meanwhile, would try to reap maximum concessions from the EU — on trade, visa-free travel to Europe and support for Syrian refugees — while eschewing alignment with EU governance and economic standards. More importantly, should Erdoğan emerge electorally victorious but politically weaker with a narrow electoral margin — a real possibility — tensions with the West would put him at greater risk of Russian manipulation against NATO.

A victory for the strongest anti-Erdoğan contender, Muharrem İnce, backed by a united parliamentary majority, would lead to a more amicable relationship with the West, especially if Turkish politics returned to a rule-based system. But to earn credibility, this new leadership would have to quickly take a stand on restoring a strong relationship with NATO and relaunching peace talks with Turkey’s Kurds. These are no small endeavors.

The big picture: Most polls predict that Erdoğan will carry the presidency. In that event, liberties and tolerance in Turkey's diverse society would fall even further, followed by Turkey’s alliance with the West.

Marc Pierini is a former EU ambassador to Turkey and a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe.  

What Turkey’s high-stakes elections mean for the West

It boils down to a choice between one-man rule and a return to a more liberal government.

Muharrem Ince addresses Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party meeting on May 4, 2018 , in Ankara after being named as its candidate to challenge Erdogan.

Muharrem İnce addresses a Republican People's Party meeting on May 4, 2018, in Ankara after being named the party's candidate to challenge President Erdoğan. Photo: Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

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Turkey

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Turkey is slated to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on June 24. The current leadership has moved the vote forward by 16 months in the hopes of avoiding fallout from a badly deteriorating economy.Why it matters: For Erdoğan, the combined elections are a matter of political survival after more than 15 years in power. For the opposition, they represent the first serious opportunity to send the incumbent president into retirement. For the citizens of Turkey, this boils down to a choice between a one-man-rule system with no checks and balances and a possible return to a more liberal and parliamentary system of governance.

President Trump redefined his Syria policy in a volley of tweets Sunday, threatening to "devastate Turkey economically" if it attacks Kurds in Syria. At issue is Ankara’s longstanding objection to the U.S. alliance with the Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG), who have proven to be Washington's most reliable and efficient allies in Syria’s northeast in the fight against ISIS.

Why it matters: Trump's proclamation marks another troubling development in the souring U.S.–Turkey relationship, one that may further fuel anti-American sentiments in Turkey. 

While unexpectedly threatening Turkey with economic retaliation, Trump yielded to Ankara’s longstanding request for a safe zone, a 20-mile-wide strip of land that will prevent Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG) from coming into direct contact with Kurdish insurgents in Turkey (PKK), whom Turkey sees as a single, integrated operation straddling the border. Trump further intimated that the U.S. will act to prevent any provocation by Syrian Kurds with Turkey.

With respect to the Syrian Kurds, who have been fighting for their survival against ISIS' onslaught and for the recognition of their cultural and political identity by Damascus, Trump's new proclamation means they will be left alone with only a vague promise of U.S. air support from air bases outside Syria. 

Consequently, Syrian Kurds will get even closer to the Assad regime than they already were, hoping to ensure their own survival by earning Moscow’s support and to obtain some significant degree of autonomy (which is less probable). 

Meanwhile, Russia and Iran — supposedly U.S. enemies — will have an easier job helping Damascus retake control of all borders to the north, probably at Turkey’s expense.

What to watch: The U.S. will now have a weaker hand in the as-yet-unscheduled negotiations in the UN framework for the future constitutional arrangements in Syria, as the U.S. (and French) withdrawal will leave Russia and Iran as the only foreign powers on Syrian territory. This will in turn reinforce Assad’s position, while Turkey’s anti-Assad stance is neutralized by its political alliance with Moscow and Tehran.

Marc Pierini is a former EU ambassador to Turkey and Syria. He is now a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe.

Trump threat likely to alienate Turkey, weaken U.S. leverage in Syria

It's another troubling development in the souring U.S.–Turkey relationship.

Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani prior to their talks at Black Sea resort state residence

Russian President Vladimir Putin with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov via Getty Images

Politics

President Trump redefined his Syria policy in a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="volley of tweets" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1084584259510304768" data-vars-content-id="ac7a8458-afc1-4bae-86b7-09e53c5bd31e" data-vars-headline="Trump threat likely to alienate Turkey, weaken U.S. leverage in Syria" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1084584259510304768" target="_blank">volley of tweets</a> Sunday, threatening to &quot;devastate Turkey economically&quot; if it attacks Kurds in Syria. At issue is Ankara’s longstanding objection to the U.S. alliance with the Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG), who have proven to be Washington&#x27;s most reliable and efficient allies in Syria’s northeast in the fight against ISIS.Why it matters: Trump&#x27;s proclamation marks another troubling development in the souring U.S.–Turkey relationship, one that may further fuel anti-American sentiments in Turkey.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Details about the U.S–Turkey crisis have been unfolding over the past few days: a pastor as stage hostage, frozen assets for ministers on both sides, tariffs on Turkish exports of aluminum and steel to the U.S., a Trump tweet here, a fiery Erdogan speech there. But this is only the spectacular side of the story.

The big picture: The troubles of the Turkish lira have deep roots. Turkey is a structural-deficit country: It needs both short-term money on a daily basis and foreign direct investment in the long run. While the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) initially managed these fundamentals fairly well after it came to power in late 2002, doing so has become incompatible with President Erdogan's autocratic governance.

Autocratic countries can survive the absence of rule of law if they sit on a wealth of oil or gas (Saudi Arabia, for example). But Turkey has neither, and its economic survival depends on exports, short-term funding, long-term direct investment, and extensive foreign borrowing. All of these economic lifelines presuppose confidence on international markets, especially in Europe and the U.S.

President Erdogan has done much to undermine that confidence since his first election in 2014, drastically shifting Turkey's political system away from liberal democratic fundamentals toward one-man rule. Erdogan has been fighting the Turkish Central Bank for years, at great risk, against high interest rates, while his desire to create an Islamic class of entrepreneurs has distorted public tenders. With a weakened parliament, a judiciary under political influence, a compromised media, and a permanent propensity to blame all the country’s woes on imaginary enemies, Turkey has seen its international financial rating sharply deteriorate.

The bottom line: Turkey’s president has driven the economy into a narrow, dead-end alley, where measures taken on currency and interest rates run counter to what’s needed, and where the narrative about resisting the U.S. economic “war” will only squeeze the country further.

Marc Pierini is a former EU ambassador to Turkey and a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe.

The autocratic origins of Turkey's economic crisis

The lira's troubles have much deeper roots.

People walk in the street past a currency exchange office on August 13, 2018 in Istanbul, Turkey.

People walk past a currency exchange office on August 13, 2018, in Istanbul, Turkey, where the lira hit another record low overnight. Photo: Chris McGrath via Getty Images

Details about the U.S–Turkey crisis have been unfolding over the past few days: a pastor as stage hostage, frozen assets for ministers on both sides, tariffs on Turkish exports of aluminum and steel to the U.S., a Trump tweet here, a fiery Erdogan speech there. But this is only the spectacular side of the story.The big picture: The troubles of the Turkish lira have deep roots. Turkey is a structural-deficit country: It needs both short-term money on a daily basis and foreign direct investment in the long run. While the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) initially managed these fundamentals fairly well after it came to power in late 2002, doing so has become incompatible with President Erdogan&#x27;s autocratic governance.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Turkey’s incursion into Afrin, in northwestern Syria, marks a significant move in its campaign against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). It was authorized by Russia, with the likely aim of returning local control to the Assad regime, and signals displeasure with the U.S.’s recent announcement of a 30,000-strong border protection force. Rex Tillerson called news of such a force “misportrayed,” but amid conspiracy theories and anti-American sentiment, his clarification came too late.

At this point, there’s little the U.S. and EU can do apart from pressing Turkey to seek moderation and avoid civilian casualties. The EU might also offer cross-border humanitarian assistance on Syrian soil.

The stakes will be raised if and when President Erdogan launches a promised ground operation against the town of Manbij, located at the Western edge of a vast region controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), themselves under the command of the YPG. Because the SDF are backed by U.S. Special Forces, the risk of a U.S.–Turkish confrontation is real.

What's next: Given restrictions on free speech within Turkey, the media is expected to produce a unanimously positive image of the operation. By playing up this limited operation as a major success, Erdogan is attempting to burnish his image as the providential leader best able to steer the country through difficult times. 

Marc Pierini is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and a former EU ambassador and head of delegation to Turkey.

Turkey’s Afrin campaign heightens tensions with U.S.

The risks of a ground confrontation are greater than ever.

Turkish military forces' howitzers fire on Afrin on January 23, 2018. Photo: Cem Genco / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images

Expert voices

Turkey’s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="incursion into Afrin" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/turkey-launches-strikes-on-kurdish-forces-in-1516464115-9c6880e1-6780-414e-a2af-ecfdbef9c441.html" data-vars-content-id="fc4a17d6-b232-47b5-922c-7a5fb851d4dd" data-vars-headline="Turkey’s Afrin campaign heightens tensions with U.S." data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/turkey-launches-strikes-on-kurdish-forces-in-1516464115-9c6880e1-6780-414e-a2af-ecfdbef9c441.html" target="_self">incursion into Afrin</a>, in northwestern Syria, marks a significant move in its campaign against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). It was authorized by Russia, with the likely aim of returning local control to the Assad regime, and signals displeasure with the U.S.’s recent announcement of a 30,000-strong border protection force. Rex Tillerson called news of such a force “<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="misportrayed" data-vars-click-url="https://app.salesforceiq.com/r?target=5a665a01e4b009cf1be63d24&amp;t=AFwhZf3yq6jRUH_reRNcoIOmGoGs-Fy1WBtHlVgQyFSVSftqzgO_zq3cSnzlms8L7QhpKZtN3ym7dLNfIJaFO5ILWAldmYg29IW3VWtsTILi16vkI4UdQXRYCrpzbvphROBVjSbz_tt0" data-vars-content-id="fc4a17d6-b232-47b5-922c-7a5fb851d4dd" data-vars-headline="Turkey’s Afrin campaign heightens tensions with U.S." data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://app.salesforceiq.com/r?target=5a665a01e4b009cf1be63d24&amp;t=AFwhZf3yq6jRUH_reRNcoIOmGoGs-Fy1WBtHlVgQyFSVSftqzgO_zq3cSnzlms8L7QhpKZtN3ym7dLNfIJaFO5ILWAldmYg29IW3VWtsTILi16vkI4UdQXRYCrpzbvphROBVjSbz_tt0" target="_blank">misportrayed</a>,” but amid conspiracy theories and anti-American sentiment, his clarification came too late.At this point, there’s little the U.S. and EU can do apart from pressing Turkey to seek moderation and avoid civilian casualties. The EU might also offer cross-border humanitarian assistance on Syrian soil.The stakes will be raised if and when President Erdogan launches a promised ground operation against the town of Manbij, located at the Western edge of a vast region controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), themselves under the command of the YPG. Because the SDF are backed by U.S. Special Forces, the risk of a U.S.–Turkish confrontation is real.What&#x27;s next: Given restrictions on free speech within Turkey, the media is expected to produce a unanimously positive image of the operation. By playing up this limited operation as a major success, Erdogan is attempting to burnish his image as the providential leader best able to steer the country through difficult times. Marc Pierini is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and a former EU ambassador and head of delegation to Turkey.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Marc Pierini

Stories

Trump threat likely to alienate Turkey, weaken U.S. leverage in Syria

The autocratic origins of Turkey's economic crisis

What Turkey’s high-stakes elections mean for the West

Turkey’s Afrin campaign heightens tensions with U.S.