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There were no real surprises during the erstwhile Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to Africa. It is likely to be remembered merely for preceding his firing by President Donald Trump, which the White House linked to upcoming negotiations with North Korea, rather than to anything about his Africa trip.

Why it matters: Trump and Tillerson had little personal chemistry and a host of policy differences, so the transition was expected. However, removing Tillerson at the tail-end of his first major official trip to Africa undercuts whatever promises he made or good will he may have won with African leaders, and would seem to be another manifestation of the administration’s disregard for the continent.

Tillerson visited Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Chad — countries selected in large part for their security challenges, though no security cooperation initiatives seem to have been unveiled. He pledged more than $500 million in humanitarian assistance, though how much of that was new money (as opposed to funds left over from previous budgets) remains unclear. He criticized the human rights situation in Ethiopia and Kenya, but softened that message with praise for the two countries’ efforts at improvement.

Tillerson also warned his hosts in harsh language of the dangers of an economic embrace with China and referred to increased trade and foreign direct investment, specifically the finalizing of the Continental Free Trade Agreement through the African Union.

What's next: President Trump has nominated CIA Director Mike Pompeo as the next secretary of state, but the  administration’s approach to Africa would likely change little under his leadership.

John Campbell is the Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Rexit undermines Tillerson's Africa trip

The timing will not help the Trump administration's standing in the region.

Secretary Tillerson and Chad's President Idriss Deby after their meeting on March 12, 2018. Photo: Jonathan Ernst / AFP / Getty Images

Politics

Rex Tillerson

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World

There were no real surprises during the erstwhile Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to Africa. It is likely to be remembered merely for preceding his firing by President Donald Trump, which the White House linked to upcoming negotiations with North Korea, rather than to anything about his Africa trip.Why it matters: Trump and Tillerson had little personal chemistry and a host of policy differences, so the transition was expected. However, removing Tillerson at the tail-end of his first major official trip to Africa undercuts whatever promises he made or good will he may have won with African leaders, and would seem to be another manifestation of the administration’s disregard for the continent.

President Trump should be very happy with Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari's visit last week. Unlike recent visits by French President Macron, who criticized Trump’s policies before Congress, and German Chancellor Merkel, who has also butted heads with him, Buhari’s involved much praise for Trump in ways that should please him and his base. 

Why it matters: Buhari’s visit may have at least partly defanged criticism of Trump's racism vis-à-vis his alleged Africa comments. Trump's mention of Christian killings in Nigeria may have rallied his evangelical supporters, and seemingly won him a constituency in the Independent People of Biafra, a Nigerian separatist movement, whose spokesperson referred to Trump as a “God sent to ameliorate the suffering of Christians in Nigeria.”

The trip was a win in more concrete ways for Buhari. As he observed, U.S.–Nigeria security cooperation is limited. However, the day before the meeting, Buhari's senior special assistant said that President Obama had failed to provide Nigeria the necessary support for the counterterrorism fight, likely referencing Obama’s blocking the sale of Super Tucanos to Nigeria on human rights grounds. During the press conference, Trump explained he had unblocked the sale. Buhari's assistant went on to say that, under Trump, U.S.–Nigeria relations “had recorded remarkable progress.”  

Trump also reaffirmed Nigeria’s regional leadership role, promised security cooperation and affirmed that the two countries' would work to return stolen Nigerian funds, estimated at $500 million, parked in the U.S.

The bottom line: Buhari's visit is likely to have only a limited impact on American domestic politics in the November mid-terms run-up, and was overshadowed by the generally negative reactions to Macron’s and Merkel’s visits. But Trump got what he wanted: favorable reviews from an African head of state.

Trump squeezed small win out of Nigerian president's visit

After earlier controversies, he earned favorable reviews from an African head of state.

President Trump arrives with Nigerian President Buhari for a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on Monday, April 30, 2018.

President Trump and Nigerian President Buhari at the White House on April 30, 2018. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Nigeria

President Trump should be very happy with Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="visit last week" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/nigerian-president-meeting-with-trump-1525109047-aa4a01d4-cb1d-4dc2-b6f7-1fbade0998aa.html" data-vars-content-id="74815f46-acff-4243-9fcd-b5573d119c35" data-vars-headline="Trump squeezed small win out of Nigerian president&#x27;s visit" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/nigerian-president-meeting-with-trump-1525109047-aa4a01d4-cb1d-4dc2-b6f7-1fbade0998aa.html" target="_self">visit last week</a>. Unlike recent visits by French President Macron, who criticized Trump’s policies before Congress, and German Chancellor Merkel, who has also butted heads with him, Buhari’s involved much praise for Trump in ways that should please him and his base. Why it matters: Buhari’s visit may have at least partly defanged criticism of Trump&#x27;s racism vis-à-vis his <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="alleged Africa comments" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/trump-argues-1515707301-d460d701-8e1e-420d-9b4b-9df02ff58f64.html" data-vars-content-id="74815f46-acff-4243-9fcd-b5573d119c35" data-vars-headline="Trump squeezed small win out of Nigerian president&#x27;s visit" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/trump-argues-1515707301-d460d701-8e1e-420d-9b4b-9df02ff58f64.html" target="_self">alleged Africa comments</a>. Trump&#x27;s mention of Christian killings in Nigeria may have rallied his evangelical supporters, and seemingly won him a constituency in the Independent People of Biafra, a Nigerian separatist movement, whose spokesperson referred to Trump as a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="“God sent to ameliorate the suffering of Christians in Nigeria.”" data-vars-click-url="http://allafrica.com/stories/201805020043.html" data-vars-content-id="74815f46-acff-4243-9fcd-b5573d119c35" data-vars-headline="Trump squeezed small win out of Nigerian president&#x27;s visit" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201805020043.html" target="_blank">“God sent to ameliorate the suffering of Christians in Nigeria.”</a>

After winning the presidential election in Zimbabwe last week, Emmerson Mnangagwa is pursuing a campaign of violence and intimidation in opposition strongholds. His opponent, Nelson Chamisa, claims to have won the election and is challenging the results in the courts, with hints that his supporters will take to the streets if necessary.

The big picture: Zimbabwe is in for a bout of violence and intimidation that will likely result in Mnangagwa and Chamisa striking a balance of power and wealth. Civil war will be avoided, and the settlement, whatever it is, will probably be welcomed and endorsed by foreign governments and businesses. But in all likelihood, there will be little progress in Zimbabwe toward democracy and the rule of law. 

This vote has eerie echoes of Kenya's 2017 elections, when incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta used his control of state media and security forces to secure the presidency, but was challenged by Raila Odinga, who, in effect, threatened civil war. The crisis ended with a personal deal between the rival leaders.

In Zimbabwe, Mnangagwa had even more media and security control and exploited a longstanding atmosphere of opposition intimidation. 

There's a long list of similarities between the two countries. Both are:

Potentially rich, with abundant natural resources and fertile soil. 

Former colonies of white (mostly British) settlement, whose economies were dominated by a wealthy white-minority that ruled through racism and segregation.

Deeply divided along ethnic lines, following independence struggles marked by violence (though it lasted far longer in Zimbabwe).

Ruled by new, dynastic political elites who appropriated much of their country’s post-independence wealth, with little trickling down to the mass of the population. 

Countries where elections are occasion for violence. 

What's next: In Zimbabwe, as in Kenya, politics are highly transactional. Personalities and power outweigh principle. Hence, it is easy to imagine that Mnangagwa and Chamisa could make a personal deal, as Kenyatta and Odinga did, though the likely elements of such an agreement aren't yet clear.

Zimbabwe's post-election crisis may follow the course of Kenya's

A personal deal between Mnangagwa and Chamisa may offer a way out.

President Elect Emmerson Mnangagwa attends a press conference on August 3, 2018 in Harare, Zimbabwe. .

President-elect Emmerson Mnangagwa attends a press conference on August 3, 2018, in Harare, Zimbabwe. Photo: Dan Kitwood via Getty Images

Zimbabwe

After winning the presidential election in Zimbabwe last week, Emmerson Mnangagwa is pursuing a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="campaign of violence and intimidation" data-vars-click-url="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/05/zimbabwean-opposition-reports-human-rights-abuses" data-vars-content-id="96be1100-efc3-4921-ab68-b59e4ad8d8e5" data-vars-headline="Zimbabwe&#x27;s post-election crisis may follow the course of Kenya&#x27;s" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/05/zimbabwean-opposition-reports-human-rights-abuses" target="_blank">campaign of violence and intimidation</a> in opposition strongholds. His opponent, Nelson Chamisa, claims to have won the election and is challenging the results in the courts, with hints that his supporters will take to the streets if necessary.The big picture: Zimbabwe is in for a bout of violence and intimidation that will likely result in Mnangagwa and Chamisa striking a balance of power and wealth. Civil war will be avoided, and the settlement, whatever it is, will probably be welcomed and endorsed by foreign governments and businesses. But in all likelihood, there will be little progress in Zimbabwe toward democracy and the rule of law.

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari met with President Trump on Monday to discuss the U.S.' economic, strategic and diplomatic partnership with Nigeria.

Why it matters: Trump's relationship with African countries has been mired in public and diplomatic scandal, and his meeting with the president of Africa's most populous country presents an opportunity to make amends.

Trump’s relationship with African countries in general was damaged by his alleged characterization of them as “shithole countries.” Adding insult to injury, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to Africa was marred after he was fired in Nigeria. There is still no assistant secretary of state for Africa, and numerous high-level, Africa-related positions across the administration have yet to be filled.

Trump and Buhari focused on strengthening the bilateral strategic partnership, fostering economic growth and encouraging Nigeria’s democratic trajectory (national elections are scheduled for for February 2019). Nigeria has also requested more security assistance for the fight against Boko Haram and further support in recovering looted Nigerian funds now parked in the U.S.

The big picture: Scandals aside, the Trump administration’s relationship with Africa shows continuity with past administrations. It has encouraged economic development and investment, proceeded with the sale of light aircraft (which the Buhari administration wanted badly), expanded U.S. security assistance to those fighting violent Islamist extremism in Africa and continued support of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and other medical assistance programs. Buhari's visit in itself is also bound to enhance Nigeria’s leadership position in West Africa.

Trump meets Nigerian president, in chance to smooth U.S.–Africa ties

The administration has continued U.S. economic and security assistance for Nigeria.

US President Donald Trump (R) meets with Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari in the Oval Office of the White House on April 30, 2018

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari and President Trump meets in the Oval Office. Photo: Olivier Douliery -Pool via Getty Images

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari met with President Trump on Monday to discuss the U.S.&#x27; economic, strategic and diplomatic partnership with Nigeria.Why it matters: Trump&#x27;s relationship with African countries has been mired in public and diplomatic scandal, and his meeting with the president of Africa&#x27;s most populous country presents an opportunity to make amends.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

President Trump tweeted on Wednesday that he has directed Secretary of State Pompeo to “closely study the South Africa land and farm seizures” and the “large scale killing of farmers,” quoting Fox News host Tucker Carlson's claim that the “South African government is now seizing land from white farmers.”

Reality check: Although the widespread killing of white farmers is a favorite trope of  AfriForum — an Afrikaner organization that views land reform as a threat to white South Africans — such violence is in fact at a 19-year low, by some measures.

Background: Carlson had interviewed a senior policy analyst at a conservative Washington think tank, who recently wrote an article calling on Trump to “warn South Africa on land expropriations,” comparing the new South African policy with that of Zimbabwe — a  common distortion of the debate.

But South Africa is manifestly not Zimbabwe: The Mugabe regime expropriated, without compensation, private land using vigilante violence and ignoring the rule of law. By contrast, South Africa is a constitutional democracy with a record of following the law and with a strong and independent judiciary. The constitution limits what parliament can do and acknowledges the right to private property, while South African media and civil society play a critical role in keeping the government honest. Land reform will be carried out in a transparent political process and the results will likely be challenged in the courts, which have a history of standing up to the government and whose decisions are not ignored. 

The bottom line: With respect to the land issue as well as the murder rate, statistics are generally poor. There is not a consensus definition of farmer or farm worker, or how many of them are white, which doubtlessly clouds what statistics there are. That being said, that white South Africans own a majority of land and account for an outsized proportion of economic activity is clear, and there is a general consensus that land reform needs to happen, just not how. 

On South Africa land reform, Trump muddies a complex debate

Killings of white farmers are in fact at a 19-year low, by some measures.

President Cyril Ramaphosa responds during his Question and Answer session in Parliament on March 14, 2018 in Cape Town, South Africa. 

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa responds to questions about land reform in Parliament on March 14, 2018, in Cape Town, South Africa. Photo: Jaco Marais/Netwerk24/Gallo Images via Getty Images

South Africa

President Trump <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="tweeted" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1032454567152246785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1032454567152246785&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fnews%2Fmorning-mix%2Fwp%2F2018%2F08%2F23%2Ftrump-directs-pompeo-to-investigate-south-african-land-redistribution-after-foxs-tucker-carlson-raises-alarm%2F" data-vars-content-id="ce497d5a-4523-4ae3-ad21-3def612eee93" data-vars-headline="On South Africa land reform, Trump muddies a complex debate" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1032454567152246785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1032454567152246785&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fnews%2Fmorning-mix%2Fwp%2F2018%2F08%2F23%2Ftrump-directs-pompeo-to-investigate-south-african-land-redistribution-after-foxs-tucker-carlson-raises-alarm%2F" target="_blank">tweeted</a> on Wednesday that he has directed Secretary of State Pompeo to “closely study the South Africa land and farm seizures” and the “large scale killing of farmers,” quoting Fox News host Tucker Carlson&#x27;s claim that the “South African government is now seizing land from white farmers.”Reality check: Although the widespread killing of white farmers is a favorite trope of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" AfriForum" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-and-foreign-governments-should-be-skeptical-afriforums-lobbying" data-vars-content-id="ce497d5a-4523-4ae3-ad21-3def612eee93" data-vars-headline="On South Africa land reform, Trump muddies a complex debate" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-and-foreign-governments-should-be-skeptical-afriforums-lobbying" target="_blank"> AfriForum</a> — an Afrikaner organization that views land reform as a threat to white South Africans — such violence is in fact at a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="19-year low" data-vars-click-url="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/27/murders-of-farmers-in-south-africa-at-20-year-low-research-shows" data-vars-content-id="ce497d5a-4523-4ae3-ad21-3def612eee93" data-vars-headline="On South Africa land reform, Trump muddies a complex debate" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/27/murders-of-farmers-in-south-africa-at-20-year-low-research-shows" target="_blank">19-year low</a>, by some measures.

John Campbell

Stories

On South Africa land reform, Trump muddies a complex debate

Zimbabwe's post-election crisis may follow the course of Kenya's

Trump squeezed small win out of Nigerian president's visit

Trump meets Nigerian president, in chance to smooth U.S.–Africa ties

Rexit undermines Tillerson's Africa trip