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The newfound political fervor that sent protesters to the streets in China over Beijing's zero-COVID policy is helping Chinese activists worldwide grow their bases and forge stronger ties with other pro-democracy protesters, organizers based abroad told Axios.

The big picture: The COVID protests in China last November achieved their primary goal — the end of mass lockdowns, quarantines, and daily testing — even though police quashed the demonstrations within days.

While the end of zero-COVID slowed momentum for Chinese protesters abroad who are calling for democracy in China and the resignation of President Xi Jinping, it also proved protests can influence policy decisions in Beijing.

"Chinese people have definitely become more politically minded over the last few years, and the COVID-19 pandemic hastened that process," said Miho, 19, a student at the University of California, Irvine.

Background: Late last year, dozens of Chinese cities saw the country's largest political demonstrations in decades, as protesters demanded an end to zero-COVID policies. 

Organizers abroad soon followed suit, with some solidarity rallies openly calling for Xi to step down. One of the largest rallies was held near the Chinese Consulate in New York City, where about 1,000 people gathered on Nov. 29. Many held blank sheets of paper, just like protesters in China.

Axios spoke with eight overseas organizers across the U.S. and in Canada, including one who coordinated the New York rally. Most of them asked that only their English names be used, fearing retaliation from the Chinese government against them and their families.

What they're saying: "I think it’s a short-term victory for the Chinese people, but it’s not enough," said Wang Han, a 25-year-old student at the University of Southern California who went on a hunger strike outside of Apple's headquarters last month to protest the company's human rights records in China.

"If you don’t have the right to choose your own destiny, if you do not have the freedom to express disagreement with your government, then another tragedy will happen in the future," he added.

Yes, but: "[F]or a lot of people, their basic interest has been fulfilled by the relieving of the zero-COVID policy," a Chinese activist based in California told Axios, noting this has decreased the momentum among Chinese people abroad who were most incensed by the travel barriers, quarantines and economic damage caused by zero-COVID policies.

And not everyone wants "democratization," said Jules, a 23-year-old student organizer from northern China who coordinated several solidarity rallies in Chicago late last year.

How it works: Young Chinese organizers overseas have sought support from other vulnerable groups targeted by the Chinese Communist Party, such as Uyghurs, Tibetans and Hong Kongers. They've also contacted longtime dissidents to learn hard lessons about confronting an authoritarian regime.

Miho, who uses they/them pronouns, said they formed a small group tentatively called "Freedom Solidarity" at UCI last October. They forged an informal alliance with Iranian students critical of their own government's repressive policies and started co-hosting events.

"Our goal is to fight against ethnic oppression everywhere, but China is a key area of focus," Miho said.

Jason, 29, a recent graduate who organized the NYC rally, said he's also seeking a global coalition by contacting similar groups in Canada and Europe. On the most recent Human Rights Day, they coordinated many local rallies together, he said.

The intrigue: Organizers who spoke with Axios stressed the importance of keeping some degree of anonymity in public to reduce the risk of being identified and threatened by Chinese government minders abroad.

"Protecting members' identity is our top priority. We know that some people might be recruited to spy on us, other people might be coerced because their parents were in jeopardy," said Yang Ruohui, president of the Assembly of Citizens, a grassroots organization of Chinese youth in Canada.

"We limit information collection to a certain extent. We also have specific rules and procedures to shield our identity, such as compartmentalizing and clarifying our organizational structure," Yang explained.

Still, no amount of precaution feels sufficient, said Shawn, a student at Columbia University, who co-founded the White Paper Society last month. 

"When you decide to come forward, you already tacitly acknowledged the risks associated with it, and organizers obviously take more risks than participants."

"It takes enormous courage for young people to protest against the CCP on the streets, and it's a really tough decision," said Zang Xihong, 60, a Toronto-based writer and dissident better known by her pen name Sheng Xue, who fled China after Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989. 

What to watch: "The White Paper Movement is a leg of China's journey to freedom and democracy," Zang told Axios. 

"Although it looks fairly quiet now, every eruption adds to its momentum."

After zero-COVID ends, Chinese activists abroad dig in for long haul

Several overseas organizers told Axios about their experiences. They said the fight is far from over.

Protesters holding white papers and placards during a solidarity rally in Boston

Protesters held up blank sheets of paper and placards as part of the White Paper Movement in Boston on Dec. 2. Photo: Tang Ka Huen/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

World

India is set to surpass China as the world's most populous country sometime this year, the UN projects.

Why it matters: The milestone could have major economic and societal implications for both countries — and may eventually influence trade flows and upend the global balance of power.

By the numbers: India was home to 1.417 billion people as of last year, compared to China's 1.426 billion, per UN figures.

But as India's population continues to grow, China's population is expected to decline — to 1.313 billion by 2050, per the UN's most recent "medium variant" projection. 

The big picture: Population is a key driver of economic productivity and growth. 

For years, India has been one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, averaging 5.5% growth over the past decade, per Morgan Stanley.

The South Asian nation overtook the United Kingdom to become the fifth-largest economy last year. It's expected to become the third-largest — topping the economies of Japan and Germany —  by 2028, according to IMF.

But China, where population growth has slowed considerably in recent years, faces a grim economic outlook, as it emerges from three years of zero-COVID policies that dampened market activities and consumer confidence.  

A declining and aging population will lead to further economic stagnation, some economists say. "China’s demographic decline is the single biggest factor driving down China’s economic growth," said Robert Blohm, a Toronto-based economist and managing director of the investment firm Keen Resources Asia.

That, combined with India's growing population and a shift away from China due to geopolitical reasons, may help the South Asian country chip away at China's dominance as the world's factory. "A lot of production capacity will be moved to India,"  Yi Fuxian, a scientist in obstetrics and gynecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Axios.

"There will be more and more made-in-India goods on the U.S. market," Yi said. 

Apple is already moving some production capacity from China to India amid geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing, as well as recent supply chain disruptions in China, the New York Times reported in September. 

Yes, but: Some experts have cautioned that it will take decades for India to compete with China's manufacturing power, citing bureaucracy, protectionism and a weak value chain.

"India certainly has advantages in terms of demographics, in terms of geography, in terms of the infrastructure that exists, much of which has been built in the last few years," Ashutosh Sharma, a research director at advisory firm Forrester, told Insider.

"It can obviously increase the scale, but what it does not have is all the pieces of the puzzle," Sharma said. 

This includes infrastructure like adequate ports that would allow the country to be better integrated into the global supply chain. Bloomberg noted this week that the world's biggest container ship, Ever Alot, has so far skipped docking in India, highlighting the country's inadequate port infrastructure. 

Between the lines: There are also concerns that India's growing population will bring on new challenges or exacerbate existing ones. 

While India has slashed its poverty rate over the years, its wealth gap has widened significantly over the last three decades, according to Oxfam. 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has described the country's population growth as an "explosion" that "will cause many problems for our future generations." In an Independence Day Speech in 2019, Modi linked smaller families to patriotism.  

Experts, however, point to UN figures showing that India's population growth appears to be stabilizing. More than 30 states and territories, where nearly 70% of Indians live, have already achieved fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1, the UN Population Fund said last year. 

What to watch: "With India surpassing China in population, its economy would not only surpass China's but could even surpass that of the U.S. by the second half of the century and come on top in a new world order," Yi said.

Other experts offer a more nuanced view. "Whether India ‘s economy ever exceeds the U.S.’s, it’s too soon to tell because a lot of institutional reform is still required in India, and the U.S. economy depends also on what happens in the rest of the world," Blohm said.

India to become most populous nation — bringing opportunities and challenges

The milestone could have major economic and societal implications for both countries.

India is set to become the most populous nation this year. Photo: Nasir Kachroo/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Population

India is set to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="surpass" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/11/china-india-world-population-trends" data-vars-content-id="0e1f7fb4-5e6b-4ecb-a2f6-1408e4997157" data-vars-headline="India to become most populous nation — bringing opportunities and challenges" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/11/china-india-world-population-trends" target="_self">surpass</a> China as the world&#x27;s most populous country sometime this year, the UN <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="projects" data-vars-click-url="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf" data-vars-content-id="0e1f7fb4-5e6b-4ecb-a2f6-1408e4997157" data-vars-headline="India to become most populous nation — bringing opportunities and challenges" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf" target="_blank">projects</a>.Why it matters: The milestone could have major economic and societal implications for both countries — and may eventually influence trade flows and upend the global balance of power.

The United States said on Thursday it will boost its military presence in the Philippines after Manila agreed to give the U.S. access to four additional bases as it seeks to counter China's aggression in the region. 

Why it matters: The announcement comes amid growing concern over China's increasing assertiveness in the disputed South China Sea and aggression toward Taiwan.  

Details: The agreement, announced during U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's visit to the Philippines, will add to the five sites the U.S. military already has access to under a 2014 pact called the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

The two countries did not announce the locations of the four new sites, but the U.S. has long hoped to gain access to the northern island of Luzon, which analysts say could give U.S. forces a strategic position to mount operations in the event of a conflict in the South China Sea or against Taiwan, per the Washington Post.

As part of the agreement, the U.S. has allocated $82 million to improve the infrastructure at the five current EDCA sites.

What they're saying: "The EDCA is a key pillar of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, which supports combined training, exercises, and interoperability between our forces," the two countries said in a joint statement. "Expansion of the EDCA will make our alliance stronger and more resilient, and will accelerate modernization of our combined military capabilities."

The two countries added that access to the four new sites will "allow more rapid support for humanitarian and climate-related disasters in the Philippines, and respond to other shared challenges."

Austin stressed that the sites will not be permanent, saying during a press conference that "it is not about permanent basing, but it is a big deal. It’s a really big deal," per the New York Times. 

Speaking before his meeting with Austin, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said his country is facing a “terribly complex situation, something we can only navigate properly with help from our partners and allies," according to the Washington Post. 

China's foreign ministry, meanwhile, pushed back against Thursday's announcement. 

“Out of self-interest, the United States continues to strengthen its military deployment in the region with a zero-sum mentality, which is exacerbating tension in the region and endangering regional peace and stability,” spokesperson Mao Ning said, per the Times.

“Countries in the region should remain vigilant against this and avoid being coerced and used by the United States.”

The big picture: Thursday's announcement also signifies a continued thawing of U.S.-Philippines relations that were strained under former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, whose early pro-China and anti-U.S. stance unnerved Washington.

The two countries frequently conduct joint military exercises. Most recently, some 3000 Philippine and U.S. Marines participated in an annual bilateral exercise in the Philippines, according to the U.S. State Department.

Philippines grants U.S. military expanded access to bases amid China tensions

There's growing concern over China's increasing assertiveness in the disputed South China Sea and aggression toward Taiwan.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III (L) talks beside his Philippine counterpart, Carlito Galvez Jr. at a joint press conference in Manila, Philippines. Photo: Joeal Calupitan - Pool/Getty Images

The United States said on Thursday it will boost its military presence in the Philippines after Manila agreed to give the U.S. access to four additional bases as it seeks to counter China&#x27;s aggression in the region. Why it matters: The announcement comes amid growing concern over China&#x27;s increasing assertiveness in the disputed South China Sea and aggression toward Taiwan.

China's shrinking population highlights the need for the country to build a more efficient and robust workforce, but analysts tell Axios that it won't be an easy task.

Why it matters: China's nearly 1 billion working-age population already peaked in 2014 and has dipped in the last few years. By 2100, China is projected to have a workforce size of less than 400 million, according to UN data last July. Harnessing the potential of existing workers will be key to maintaining economic productivity, experts say.

"The question is whether an increasingly autocratic dictatorship can unlock the value of human resources when so many of the things that an open society like Germany or Japan can count on are beyond their reach," said Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute, citing the institutional flexibility of advanced economies.

Driving the news: Following last week's population announcement, Beijing underscored the importance of retraining the country's workers.

"We should not only look at the quantity of the demographic dividend but also its quality," Qu Hongbin, vice chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, told a state media outlet this week. 

China can continue to improve its human capital, and educational investments can counter the risks of a shrinking workforce, he said.

What they're saying: China needs to create more high-wage, high-value jobs because jobs based on cheap labor are expected to move away from the country due to geopolitical tensions and as other countries like India become bigger manufacturing hubs, said Zak Dychtwald, founder of market insights firm Young China Group.

That will leave a large swath of its population vulnerable to income loss, Dychtwald told Axios. 

"China’s population decline means fewer people need to support more economic weight. Fewer people working the same jobs as before will not cut it," he said.

Joseph Chamie, an independent demographer and former director of the UN Population Division, shared similar views. "Technology will play an increasingly important role in China's economic productivity," he said, adding that robots could be an answer to aging societies.

By the numbers: By 2030, up to 220 million Chinese workers may need to switch occupations due to automation, according to a McKinsey report in 2021. 

The changing workforce landscape will also bring challenges for China's 292 million migrant workers — unskilled laborers who move from China's rural areas into cities to seek jobs mainly in construction and manufacturing, the McKinsey report said. Many can't access quality training programs and have limited capacities to make work transitions.

State of play: Since 2017, the Chinese government has pushed the country to transition from "high-speed" to "high-quality" development. In its manufacturing sector, the government has prioritized the transition from making low-valued products to those based on advanced technology, which it hopes will drive economic growth in the future.

In 2020, the government also recommended delaying the legal retirement ages “gradually." In another document the following year, Beijing hinted that it could start implementing the measures nationwide by 2025.

Currently, the country has some of the lowest retirement ages in the world, with men retiring at 60 and most women at 55. 

Analysts have argued that as China's population continues to age, it will create further strain on the country's already underfunded pension system.

Between the lines: Although the Chinese government has highlighted the progress it has made in education and worker protections in recent years, significant barriers remain.

Chinese women earn 12% less on average than men, and nearly 40% of them feel marriage and childbearing dim their career prospects, according to a report last year by online recruitment platform Zhilian Zhaopin.

China revised its law on the protection of women's rights last year, explicitly banning gender-based discrimination in hiring practices, but some experts say more protections and tighter enforcement are needed.

"As China’s workforce grows older, it becomes ever more important to provide meaningful labor protections against pervasive workplace discriminations that are often systematically based on gender and age," Zhou Yun, a demographer and assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan, told Axios.

The bottom line: Building a more efficient workforce can mitigate the impacts of population decline on China's economy, but there are limitations.

"Qualitative upgrades can only go so far," said Paul Morland, a British demographer and associate research fellow at the University of London.

"China’s population is already quite well-educated. There is no substitute to raising the birth rate," he added.

Go deeper: Why China's growth and population declines matter for the world

China wants a more efficient workforce but analysts say that will be tough

By 2100, China is projected to have a workforce size of less than 400 million.

Chinese factory workers on a car assembly line

Employees on a Chinese EV startup assembly line in Zhejiang province last October. Photo: Hu Xiaofei/VCG via Getty Images

China&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="shrinking population" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/17/china-population-falls-first-time-over-60-years" data-vars-content-id="b9389474-b051-4723-8702-3521b1808d9c" data-vars-headline="China wants a more efficient workforce but analysts say that will be tough" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/17/china-population-falls-first-time-over-60-years" target="_self">shrinking population</a> highlights the need for the country to build a more efficient and robust workforce, but analysts tell Axios that it won&#x27;t be an easy task.Why it matters: China&#x27;s nearly 1 billion working-age population already peaked in 2014 and has dipped in the last few years. By 2100, China is projected to have a workforce size of less than 400 million, according to UN <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="data" data-vars-click-url="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/15-64/156" data-vars-content-id="b9389474-b051-4723-8702-3521b1808d9c" data-vars-headline="China wants a more efficient workforce but analysts say that will be tough" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/15-64/156" target="_blank">data</a> last July. Harnessing the potential of existing workers will be key to maintaining economic productivity, experts say.

Hong Kong's largest national security trial opened on Monday for 16 prominent pro-democracy activists facing subversion charges under a 2020 law that stifled political dissent.

Why it matters: The trial, which is expected to last three months, will signal how the Hong Kong legal system will prosecute once-protected rights under Beijing's tightening grip.

Details: The 16 defendants standing trial are among 47 activists charged in 2021 with "conspiracy to commit subversion," for organizing an unofficial primary the year before to nominate opposition candidates for a legislative election.

Their trial is first because they have pleaded not guilty, which could lead to longer sentences if convicted. The three presiding judges were appointed under the National Security Law (NSL), and the trial will not have a jury, AFP reported.

The defendants mirror the diverse backgrounds of Hong Kong's political opposition, including former journalist and social activist Gwyneth Ho, former district council member Tat Cheng and former lawmaker Leung Kwok-hung.

The other 31 defendants who have pleaded guilty, including pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong and prominent legal scholar Benny Tai, will be sentenced following the trial for those who have pleaded not guilty, local media reported.

Background: Hong Kong enacted the national security law in 2020 under Beijing's pressure after widespread protests in 2019 of proposed extradition law amendments that would allow Hong Kong to send people to mainland China to stand trial. The proposal was later scrapped following the public outcry.

The law imposes harsh penalties on acts of dissent, including damaging government buildings and sabotaging transport, gives Beijing the power to intervene in local national security cases, and allows China's security forces to operate openly in Hong Kong.

What to watch: Some defendants have been jailed for almost two years without trial. Critics have attributed the long delay to a lack of evidence, VOA reported. The court has been told at least three of the 47 activists will testify against their peers as prosecution witnesses, which could further complicate the trial.

Hong Kong's largest national security trial begins

It will signal how the Hong Kong legal system will prosecute once-protected rights under Beijing's tightening grip.

Supporters hold signs with images of Hong Kong pro-democracy activists outside the courts

Supporters hold signs featuring images of some of the 47 Hong Kong pro-democracy activists charged with conspiracy to commit subversion under the national security law. Photo: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images

Hong Kong

Hong Kong&#x27;s largest national security trial opened on Monday for 16 prominent pro-democracy activists facing subversion charges under a 2020 law that stifled political dissent.Why it matters: The trial, which is expected to last three months, will signal how the Hong Kong legal system will prosecute once-protected rights under Beijing&#x27;s tightening grip.

Han Chen

Stories

Hong Kong's largest national security trial begins

Philippines grants U.S. military expanded access to bases amid China tensions

China wants a more efficient workforce but analysts say that will be tough

After zero-COVID ends, Chinese activists abroad dig in for long haul

India to become most populous nation — bringing opportunities and challenges