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In response to the recent chlorine bomb attacks in Douma, President Trump ordered missile strikes on three facilities used by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime to produce and store chemical weapons. Rather than destroy Syria’s extensive chemical weapons infrastructure, Trump sought to demonstrate international resolve and deter future use.

Yes, but: These were limited and surgical strikes at the insistence of cautious Pentagon planners, including Defense Secretary James Mattis. Strikes did not target Assad’s broader war-making capability or seek to advance the goal of regime change. They also avoided Russian and Iranian casualties, which could have escalated the conflict.

What's next: The U.S. and its allies will hit more targets with greater firepower if Assad uses chemical weapons again, but it is still unclear whether the strikes were an impulsive response or part of a larger strategy to end Syria’s civil war.

The bottom line: The Trump administration should renew its diplomacy, backed by a credible threat of force. Secretary of State designate Mike Pompeo can engage Russia, Iran and Turkey in U.S.–led mediation through a “contact group” of stakeholders that complements UN efforts. Syria's grinding civil war will continue without greater U.S. engagement.

David L. Phillips is director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University and a former senior adviser to both the UN Secretariat and the U.S. Department of State.

After Syria strikes, time to renew diplomacy

Greater U.S. engagement is needed to help end the grinding civil war.

Wreckage of the Scientific Studies and Research Centre (SSRC) compound north of Damascus, a target of the missile strikes. Photo: Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images

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Syria

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In response to the recent chlorine bomb attacks in Douma, President Trump ordered missile strikes on three facilities used by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad&#x27;s regime to produce and store chemical weapons. Rather than destroy Syria’s extensive chemical weapons infrastructure, Trump sought to demonstrate international resolve and deter future use.Yes, but: These were limited and surgical strikes at the insistence of cautious Pentagon planners, including Defense Secretary James Mattis. Strikes did not target Assad’s broader war-making capability or seek to advance the goal of regime change. They also avoided Russian and Iranian casualties, which could have escalated the conflict.

In the latest example of Turkey's brazen expansionism into Kosovo, it secured the extradition of six Turkish teachers it has accused of belonging to the Gulen movement, which President Erdogan blames for the failed 2016 coup. Kosovo's Prime Minister, Ramush Haradinaj, has since fired his interior minister and intelligence chief for deporting the Turkish nationals without his knowledge.

Why it matters: Transparency and the rule of law are necessary for Kosovo to gain greater global recognition. But Turkey continues to treat Kosovo like a vassal state, impinging on its sovereignty while expanding its cultural and commercial influence inside its neighbor's borders.

Erdogan has belittled Kosovo's status as an independent nation, maintaining that the two countries "belong to a common history, common culture, common civilization …Turkey is Kosovo, Kosovo is Turkey!” 

Turkish firms have won contracts for large public projects and services, including management of the Pristina International Airport and ownership of the utility company KEDS. Such privatization is rife with corruption: The former CEO of one of the companies that acquired KEDS, for example, is Erdogan’s son-in-law. Without more oversight in the commercial sector, Kosovo won't be seen as a credible destination for foreign investment.

Turkey also exports Islamism under the guise of cultural cooperation, through the Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency (TIKA). Since 2012, TIKA has restored scores of Ottoman religious structures and built dozens of new mosques across Kosovo. On behalf of Turkey, Erdogan pledged funds for a mega-mosque in Pristina. Overt symbols of religiosity have not historically been characteristic of Kosovars. 

The bottom line: Kosovo is at a crossroads: It can either entrench the rule of law and progress with Euro-Atlantic integration by investigating matters like the recent extradition, the financing of Turkish corporate acquisitions and the operations of TIKA — or it can succumb to Erdogan's Islamist and anti-Western agenda. 

David L. Phillips is director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University and a former senior adviser to both the UN Secretariat and the U.S. Department of State. 

In new incursion, Turkey orchestrates rushed extraditions from Kosovo

Kosovo can either entrench the rule of law or succumb to Erdogan's agenda.

Students of Mehmet Akif College demonstrate against the arrest of their teachers in Pristina on March 29, 2018. 

Students of Mehmet Akif College protest the Turkish arrest of their teachers in Pristina, Kosovo, on March 29, 2018. Photo: Armend Nimani/AFP via Getty Images

Kosovo

In the latest example of Turkey&#x27;s brazen expansionism into Kosovo, it secured the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="extradition" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-kosovo/six-turks-arrested-in-kosovo-over-gulen-links-extradited-to-turkey-anadolu-idUSKBN1H51JL" data-vars-content-id="5d9e709d-4a32-4575-b586-36cf7bc4b76f" data-vars-headline="In new incursion, Turkey orchestrates rushed extraditions from Kosovo" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-kosovo/six-turks-arrested-in-kosovo-over-gulen-links-extradited-to-turkey-anadolu-idUSKBN1H51JL" target="_blank">extradition</a> of six Turkish teachers it has accused of belonging to the Gulen movement, which President Erdogan blames for the failed 2016 coup. Kosovo&#x27;s Prime Minister, Ramush Haradinaj, has since <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="fired" data-vars-click-url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/turkish-president-slams-kosovos-leader-over-deportations/2018/03/31/093efb54-34fe-11e8-b6bd-0084a1666987_story.html?utm_term=.27c2116e8d30" data-vars-content-id="5d9e709d-4a32-4575-b586-36cf7bc4b76f" data-vars-headline="In new incursion, Turkey orchestrates rushed extraditions from Kosovo" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/turkish-president-slams-kosovos-leader-over-deportations/2018/03/31/093efb54-34fe-11e8-b6bd-0084a1666987_story.html?utm_term=.27c2116e8d30" target="_blank">fired</a> his interior minister and intelligence chief for deporting the Turkish nationals without his knowledge.Why it matters: Transparency and the rule of law are necessary for Kosovo to gain greater global recognition. But Turkey continues to treat Kosovo like a vassal state, impinging on its sovereignty while expanding its cultural and commercial influence inside its neighbor&#x27;s borders.

Last month, President Trump announced the immediate and complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria. Then he backtracked, declaring that the U.S. withdrawal is contingent on benchmarks set by national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Pompeo: destroying ISIS and security guarantees for the Kurds in Syria. Now, the current course is unclear.

Why it matters: Although U.S. forces cannot stay in Syria forever, withdrawing them too hastily could create a vacuum for ISIS to fill. While Turkey has pledged to fight ISIS,  Erdogan's agenda is eradicating Kurds, whom he calls "terrorists." If Turkey attacks, many Kurds would be killed or displaced.

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) — Turkey's boots on the ground — is dominated by jihadis with al-Qaeda and al-Nusra roots. The FSA has committed atrocities elsewhere in Syria, beheading Kurds and mutilating the bodies of Kurdish female fighters. Without U.S. support and protection, Kurdish fighters will be no match for Turkey’s air power.

What's next: The U.S. could cut and run, which would undermine its credibility and risk a bloodbath. Or Washington could organize an international monitoring mission with outposts in Northeast Syria, aimed at deterring Turkey’s aggression. British and French forces would participate, as could personnel from other NATO countries. Middle Eastern countries could also join.

The bottom line: An international monitoring mission could help prevent a genocide of the Kurds and serve as a precedent for establishing peace and stability in other parts of Syria, enhancing both international cooperation and America’s role.

David L. Phillips is director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University, a former senior adviser to the UN Secretariat and U.S. Department of State, and the author of “The Great Betrayal: How America Abandoned the Kurds and Lost the Middle East.”

Rushed Syria retreat undermines U.S. interests and betrays allies

If Turkey attacks, many Kurds would be killed or displaced.

Syrian Kurds demonstrating in the northeastern Syriai on December 28, 2018, against threats from Turkey to carry out a fresh offensive following the US decision to withdraw their troops. 

Syrian Kurds demonstrating in Qamishli, Syria, on Dec. 28, 2018, against threats from Turkey to carry out a fresh offensive following the U.S. decision to withdraw troops. Photo: Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images

Last month, President Trump <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="announced the immediate and complete withdrawal" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/trump-syria-troops-withdrawal-isis-6ccb1c80-b702-4ae0-8087-546830c02158.html" data-vars-content-id="6bb853bc-0be8-48f4-81a7-4e95be2d6787" data-vars-headline="Rushed Syria retreat undermines U.S. interests and betrays allies" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/trump-syria-troops-withdrawal-isis-6ccb1c80-b702-4ae0-8087-546830c02158.html" target="_self">announced the immediate and complete withdrawal</a> of U.S. forces from Syria. Then he backtracked, declaring that the U.S. withdrawal is contingent on benchmarks s<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="et by national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Pompeo" data-vars-click-url="https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2019/1/6/18170788/john-bolton-syria-withdrawal-conditions" data-vars-content-id="6bb853bc-0be8-48f4-81a7-4e95be2d6787" data-vars-headline="Rushed Syria retreat undermines U.S. interests and betrays allies" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2019/1/6/18170788/john-bolton-syria-withdrawal-conditions" target="_blank">et by national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Pompeo</a>: destroying ISIS and security guarantees for the Kurds in Syria. Now, the current course is unclear.Why it matters: Although U.S. forces cannot stay in Syria forever, withdrawing them too hastily could create a vacuum for ISIS to fill. While Turkey has pledged to fight ISIS, Erdogan&#x27;s agenda is eradicating Kurds, whom he calls &quot;terrorists.&quot; If Turkey attacks, many Kurds would be killed or displaced.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Russia used a procedural vote on Monday to prevent UN Human Rights Commissioner Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein from presenting on human rights conditions in Syria to the UN Security Council (UNSC).

Why it matters: To date, Russia has vetoed nine resolutions aimed at intensifying pressure on Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, moves that not only counter U.S. interests but undermine the international system.

Turkey’s actions have driven a wedge between Turkey and the U.S., which partners with Syrian Kurds against ISIS. Russia has exacerbated the situation by allowing Turkey’s jihadist proxies to enter the city of Afrin in northern Syria, where they have threatened Kurds with beheading and committed other atrocities. Since Russia has bases in Afrin and controls the air space, nothing happens in the area without its acquiescence.

What's next: Britain, France and other countries sympathetic to the Syrian people should call on the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to investigate criminal liability on the parts of Russia, Syria and Turkey. There are ways to work around Russia’s obstruction, including the Arria formula — named after Venezuelan diplomat Diego Arria — which allows a UNSC member to convene a meeting in an adjoining chamber when the Council is unwilling or unable to do so.

The bottom line: Trump refuses to criticize Vladimir Putin and ignores human rights issues. Absent U.S. moral leadership, other countries should take the lead to strengthen the international system and restore ethics in international affairs.

Russian obstruction on Syria at UN Security Council demands response

Other council members must pursue all available workarounds.

United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein speaking during a press conference at the UN Offices in Geneva.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein. Photo: Fabrice Coffrini / AFP via Getty Images

Russia

Russia used a procedural vote on Monday to prevent UN Human Rights Commissioner Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein from presenting on human rights conditions in Syria to the UN Security Council (UNSC).Why it matters: To date, Russia has vetoed nine resolutions aimed at intensifying pressure on Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, moves that not only counter U.S. interests but undermine the international system.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Relations between Russia and Turkey took a hit last week after a Russian warplane was shot down over Idlib province by Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian al-Qaeda offshoot allied with Turkey.

Why it matters: HTS used a “man-portable air-defense system” (MANPAD), a shoulder-fired missile system the U.S. has refused to provide to Kurdish militias, fearing it could fall into the hands of extremists. The terror group likely received the weapon from Turkey.

The Russian plane's downing followed a joint attack by HTS and Turkish troops that undermined a Russian-led “de-escalation zone.” In response, Russia has blocked Turkish fighter jets and drones from entering Syrian air space.

The bottom line: Syrian peace talks in Astana have already collapsed as a result of Turkish aggression, including the recent unprovoked attacks on Kurdish civilians in Afrin. This setback in Russia-Turkey relations increases tensions between countries vying for influence in Syria. In a region where "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," it may improve U.S.–Russia relations, catalyzing greater cooperation between Washington and Moscow in UN-brokered negotiations.

David L. Phillips is director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights.

Downed warplane widens Russia-Turkey rift

The al-Qaeda group responsible likely sourced its missile system from Turkey.

wreckage of Russian warplane after it was shot down

The Russian Sukhoi-25 fighter jet downed in Syria's northwest province of Idlib on February 3, 2018. Photo: Omar Haj Kadour / AFP / Getty Images

Expert voices

Relations between Russia and Turkey took a hit last week after a Russian warplane was shot down over Idlib province by Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian al-Qaeda offshoot allied with Turkey.Why it matters: HTS used a “man-portable air-defense system” (MANPAD), a shoulder-fired missile system the U.S. has refused to provide to Kurdish militias, fearing it could fall into the hands of extremists. The terror group likely received the weapon from Turkey.

David L. Phillips

Stories

Rushed Syria retreat undermines U.S. interests and betrays allies

After Syria strikes, time to renew diplomacy

In new incursion, Turkey orchestrates rushed extraditions from Kosovo

Russian obstruction on Syria at UN Security Council demands response

Downed warplane widens Russia-Turkey rift